Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate

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Prediction markets have tossed out their crystal balls for a truly dramatic forecast: the Democrats are tipped to take the House in 2026, while the Republicans appear comfortably in control of the Senate. As for the 2028 presidential race, JD Vance is currently the front-runner, with Gavin Newsom in hot pursuit.

2026 Outlook-Democrats Eye House Control, Republicans Hold Senate Edge

Ah, the sweet scent of partisanship in the air! On Friday, Sept. 12, 2025, markets were clearly feeling decisive, or at least as decisive as one can get with a percentage. According to Polymarket, the Democrats are standing strong at 69% to claim the House, while the Republicans reign supreme at 71% for the Senate.

Not to be left behind in the prediction race, Kalshi joins the fun with the Democrats getting 68% for the House, and Republicans pulling in a 71% chance at the Senate. Sure, some numbers differ-but the message? Clear as a bell, my dear Watson.

It’s not a verdict, mind you, just a pulse check. These are probabilities, not guarantees-so don’t put your retirement savings into these markets just yet. The numbers shift with headlines, fundraisers, and the occasional campaign disaster. Still, when two separate platforms start to hum the same tune, it’s worth a raised eyebrow and a fresh cup of coffee. But don’t get too comfortable; anything can happen.

JD Vance Tops Odds, Newsom Second, and Trump Still Lingers for a Third Term

Now, zooming out to 2028 (yes, I know, it’s practically a century away in political terms), the race for the White House appears to be settling into a two-name showdown: JD Vance is at the top with a commanding 28%, while Gavin Newsom trails behind at a still-respectable 22%. The middle of the pack is a bit of a grab bag with everyone from Marco Rubio to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holding steady at 5%.

In the fascinating world of low percentages, we find the peculiar 3% group-a truly strange assortment that includes Donald Trump, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Wes Moore, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, and Andy Beshear. Below them, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, and Ron DeSantis are hovering around 2%. Truly, a cast of characters no one would mind having over for tea (or not).

And then, there’s the one percenters-Donald Trump Jr., JB Pritzker, Tulsi Gabbard, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk, LeBron James, Glenn Youngkin, Stephen Smith, and Tim Walz. Greg Abbott is hanging on by a thread at below 1%. It’s early, of course-but it’s an interesting list, to say the least. Looks like a group chat no one ever leaves.

So, what does all this mean? In short: there’s a lot of chatter about a split government next year, while the 2028 presidential race is still as crowded as a subway car during rush hour. If the odds hold, Capitol Hill could soon be sporting a new two-tone makeover, with the presidential race waiting for its big names to make their official entrances-preferably not in slow motion.

For now, let’s sum it up: the House leans blue, the Senate leans red, and 2028 might just belong to Vance-by a hair, of course. 🍿

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2025-09-12 18:41