Price analysis 1/06: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, AVAX

2025 marks the first time that Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed the $100,000 mark. This surge might be attributed to sustained buying from the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, potentially fueling market optimism. On December 30-31, 2024, MicroStrategy disclosed a purchase of 1,070 Bitcoins for approximately $101 million, which equates to an average price of about $94,004 per Bitcoin. This recent acquisition boosted their total holdings to over 447,000 Bitcoins.

As a forward-thinking crypto investor, I’m excited to share that according to a recent announcement by Metalplanet CEO Simon Gerovich on platform X, our company aims to substantially boost its Bitcoin holdings. Specifically, we are planning to grow our Bitcoin reserves from the current 1,762 units to a whopping 10,000 units by the year 2025.

In the opening days of the year, there was evidence that cryptocurrency investment products were being purchased. According to a report by CoinShares, this resulted in an inflow of approximately $585 million in January 2025, adding to the massive $44 billion inflows experienced in 2024.

Though analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future growth, they are hesitant about a significant price surge in the immediate future. As per Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, Bitcoin might conclude January within the range of $97,000 to $98,000.

Could Bitcoin’s rally above $100,000 pull altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

As a crypto investor, I noticed an interesting development with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on January 3rd. The market bounced off the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern, which is usually a bullish sign. Then, on January 6th, the bulls managed to push the price above the moving averages, suggesting a potential continuation of this upward trend.

Over the past 20 days, the exponential moving average has leveled off at approximately 5,967, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure. This could lead investors to try boosting the price up to around 6,050, and potentially even as high as 6,100. However, sellers are anticipated to put up a strong fight in the 6,050 to 6,100 range. If buyers manage to overcome this resistance, the index might surge towards 6,347.

To regain control, the bears need to push the price down again so it falls beneath the moving averages. Once that happens, the index might challenge the neckline again.

US dollar Index price analysis

On January 2nd, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed up to 109.53, yet maintaining these elevated positions has proven challenging for bulls.

The bears have led the price towards the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (107.77), a crucial point to keep an eye on as it offers potential support. If the bounce back from this 20-day EMA holds, it suggests demand at lower prices. In such a case, the bulls will aim to raise the price up to 111.

From my perspective as an analyst, a drop and closure beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average might hint that sellers are stepping in more aggressively, potentially leading to an increase in the downward correction towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (106.42).

Bitcoin price analysis

The price of Bitcoin surpassed the significant barrier at $100,000, suggesting that the bullish investors have regained control, implying a potential upward trend.

Should the BTC/USDT pair’s price continue to stay above $100,000, it could potentially speed up towards its record high of $108,353. At this level, bears might show significant selling activity, but if bulls persist in their strength, the pair may restart its upward momentum. The next potential goal on the positive side stands at $126,706.

If the price doesn’t manage to hold steady above $100,000, it could suggest that the breakout was merely a deceptive move, or “bull trap.” In such a scenario, bears might look for an opportunity to push the price downwards, below the moving averages. This potential drop could lead us towards a decline in price, possibly reaching $90,000.

Ether price analysis

On January 3rd, Ether (ETH) surpassed and settled above the $3,555 mark, finishing an optimistic rising triangle pattern – a bullish indication in stock market terminology.

Recently, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has begun to rise, currently at approximately $3,529, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows positive values, suggesting that the bulls are in control. A potential price target for a breakout from the ascending triangle is around $3,894.

It’s possible that sellers might be planning something else and attempt to push the ETH/USDT pair’s price down below $3,555. If they succeed, it could potentially catch out the short-term bulls who are aggressive in their buying strategy. This could cause the price to fall back to the uptrend line.

XRP price analysis

XRP’s current trend indicates that sellers are attempting to push its value at the resistance level, yet the buying force has successfully prevented a drop beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently standing at approximately $2.29.

Should the price surpass the resistance level, there’s a possibility for an upward trend in the XRP/USDT pair, potentially reaching $1.73 first, and then possibly advancing further to $2.91. However, sellers are anticipated to put up strong resistance at the $2.91 price point.

Time is dwindling, and if the bears don’t push the price down beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), they won’t be able to extend the triangle pattern for longer. The bears will take charge once there’s a break and a subsequent close below the support line.

BNB price analysis

In simpler terms, the price of BNB is currently caught in a struggle between its 20-day average price ($703) and an upper barrier at $722, suggesting a fierce fight between the buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears).

With the 20-day Exponential Moving Average climbing steadily and the Relative Strength Index hovering slightly above its midpoint, it seems that buyers might have a slight edge. Typically, after a period of tight price movement, we can expect to see increased market fluctuations. If the price manages to surpass $722, the BNB/USDT pair may gain momentum and potentially advance toward $794.

Instead of maintaining an uptrend, falling below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average indicates that the bulls are losing their grip. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (around $685) might provide some support, but it’s likely to be breached. In such a case, the pair could potentially drop towards $635.

Solana price analysis

Solana’s price has surpassed its 50-day Simple Moving Average ($219), suggesting that buyers are making efforts to prolong the market recovery.

As an analyst, I observe a favorable market condition for buyers, as evidenced by the upward trend of the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $205, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) residing in the positive territory. If the price continues to hold above the 50-day Simple Moving Average, the SOL/USDT pair might ascend towards $235, potentially reaching further heights of $247.

Instead, if the price drops and falls beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), this suggests that bears continue to sell during rises. The pair may then reach the support line, where traders anticipate buyers will intervene.

Dogecoin price analysis

On January 4th, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased and ended its day trading above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately $0.38. This move suggests that the level of sellers in the market is decreasing.

On January 5th, the bears attempted to push the price under the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but the bulls managed to maintain their position. If purchasers manage to move the price above $0.40, the Dogecoin (DOGE) pair with USDT could potentially increase to $0.43 and subsequently reach $0.48.

If the price decreases and falls below its 50-day Simple Moving Average, it might indicate that bulls are selling off their profits. At this point, the pair could potentially drop to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average ($0.35). This would suggest a potential period of consolidation between $0.30 and $0.43.

Cardano price analysis

The recovery of Cardano’s price at ADA level is encountering resistance around $1.12, yet it’s encouraging to notice that the bullish forces haven’t given up their position to the bearish ones.

In simpler terms, the trend is currently upward as shown by the increasing slopes of both moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 62, suggesting the price may keep rising. If buyers manage to push the ADA/USDT pair beyond $1.12, it could potentially surge towards $1.20. However, sellers are likely to try to hold the $1.20 level, but if the buyers break through this resistance, the price increase might extend to $1.32.

Instead, if the price drops below $1.05, it could indicate that the bulls are starting to lose control, potentially causing the pair to drop towards the moving averages.

Avalanche price analysis

On January 6th, Avalanche (AVAX) surpassed its 50-day Simple Moving Average ($43.23), suggesting that the buyers might be making a resurgence, aiming to regain control in the market.

It’s possible that the recent price increase, or relief rally, might meet resistance within the range spanning from approximately $44.70 (50% Fibonacci retracement level) to around $47.31 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). If the trend reverses in this upper region, the cryptocurrency pair of AVAX/USDT could potentially fall back towards the 20-day Moving Average ($40.97). A significant rebound from the 20-day Moving Average would suggest a shift in market sentiment from selling during rallies to buying during dips.

To avoid a potential increase (the upside), bears need to act quickly by pushing the price down below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average. If they manage to do so, the pair could potentially drop to $35.

2025-01-06 20:36