Price analysis 12/23: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, DOGE, ADA, AVAX

As a seasoned cryptocurrency investor with years of experience under my belt, I must say that the current market trend is a rollercoaster ride. The past few days have been particularly tumultuous, with many popular coins showing bearish trends.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been finding it tough to bounce back following a nearly 9% drop last week, indicating that the bulls might be adopting a cautious approach and not rushing to snap up the price drops. However, MicroStrategy is an exception, as it acquired additional 5,262 Bitcoins between December 16 and December 22, at an average cost of approximately $106,662 each.

Even though Bitcoin has fallen short of its record high of $108,353, it’s worth noting that the bears have failed to push the price below the robust support level at $90,000. This indicates a reluctance among bullish investors to sell off their long-term holdings, suggesting they remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price movements.

However, some analysts believe that a correction may be around the corner. Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital said in a post on X that Bitcoin has broken below the weekly support, increasing the likelihood of entering “into a multi-week correction.” 

In other words, if someone is buying when prices are low and then selling during price increases, it may suggest that the market will move within a specific range for a while. Could altcoins follow this trend and enter a phase of stability or holding patterns? To help us understand, let’s examine the charts to see what they tell us.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

On December 18th, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) dipped beneath its upward trendline, which suggests that a period of decline or adjustment may have begun.

Despite not giving up, the buyers vigorously guarded the $5,853 mark on December 20th. The bulls aim to drive the price back into the wedge, but they are expected to encounter strong opposition at the support line. If the price falls from the support line and breaks below $5,853, the index could potentially drop to $5,670.

If shoppers push the price back within the range (wedge), this could suggest that the previous breakdown might have been a false signal (bear trap). Under such circumstances, the index could potentially surge towards a new record peak and attain a value of 6,221.

US dollar Index price analysis

On December 18, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged and ended its session above the significant resistance level of 108. However, the upward momentum failed to be maintained after this breakthrough.

On December 20th, sellers managed to lower the price below 108, but they’ve found it tough to maintain this low level. Consequently, the buyers have successfully pushed the price back over 108. If the 108.55 mark is surpassed, the index could gather pace and potentially reach 111.

If the price decreases from 108.55 and falls beneath 107.58, this could indicate the onset of a correction towards the 20-day exponential moving average (106.95). This level is significant for buyers to protect because a drop below it might cause the index to slide down to 105.42.

Bitcoin price analysis

On December 23rd, Bitcoin retreated towards its 50-day simple moving average ($93,383), suggesting that the selling pressure from the bears remains significant.

Over the past 20 days, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is trending lower at approximately $98,206. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 42, suggesting that the bears might have a slight upper hand. If the Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 50 days weakens, there’s a possibility for the Bitcoin/Tether pair to drop to around $90,000, and potentially even down to $85,000. However, buyers are predicted to put up strong resistance at this level.

Positively speaking, if there’s a pause in the trend and we see a break and surge above the 20-day Moving Average, it would be our first indication of growing strength. This could potentially lead us back to challenging the record high of $108,353 once more.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) closed below the 50-day SMA ($3,432) on Dec. 21, signaling an advantage to sellers.

In simpler terms, the digital currency Ethereum (ETH) is attempting a comeback around the price level of $3,594, but may encounter resistance due to selling pressure at this point. If the price drops significantly from there, it could potentially fall to $3,000 as bears try to push it lower. However, buyers are likely to put up strong resistance in the range of $3,000 to $2,850 to prevent such a drop.

From a positive perspective, surpassing and closing above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average indicates that sellers may be weakening their hold. In such a case, the pair could try to climb towards the upper resistance level at $4,094.

XRP price analysis

currently, XRP (XRP) is experiencing a challenging struggle between buyers and sellers around the 20-day Moving Average (MA), which stands at approximately $2.22. The leveling 20-day MA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering close to the middle indicate a delicate equilibrium between market supply and demand.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the market movement over the past few days has shaped into a symmetrical triangle pattern. Typically, this pattern serves as a continuation, signaling the price might continue moving in the same direction. However, on certain occasions, it can also signal a reversal. If the price starts to ascend and breaches above this triangle, the likelihood of a breakthrough at $2.91 significantly increases.

Instead of forming a peak, a drop and fall beneath the triangle could indicate that the XRP/USDT pair has reached its short-term maximum. In this case, it might descend towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at approximately $1.66.

Solana price analysis

Bulls are attempting to halt Solana’s (SOL) downturn at its upward trendline, suggesting increased demand at lower prices.

Based on the current market indicators, it appears that bears might have the upper hand. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at around $209, showing a downward slope, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold territory. This suggests any attempts at recovery could encounter selling pressure at the 20-day EMA. If the price declines from this point, there’s an increased likelihood of a break below the uptrend line. The SOL/USDT pair could potentially drop to $155 initially, and then possibly continue downward to $133.

To avoid potential losses, purchasers need to actively push and sustain prices higher than their moving averages.

BNB price analysis

On December 22nd, the value of BNB (BNB) dipped beneath its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $658, yet the downward pressure from the sellers failed to drive the price below the $635 support level.

In simpler terms, the bulls are making an effort to initiate a rebound, but this recovery might encounter resistance at around $685 (the 20-day Exponential Moving Average). If the price drops from this point, the bears will strive to pull the Binance Coin (BNB) and US Dollar (USDT) pair below its upward trendline. If they manage to do so, the pair could potentially fall to $550.

If the price surpasses its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), it would imply that the pair could potentially stay within the range of $635 to $722 for a brief period. Should the price break and close above $722, it would give the bulls control once more.

Dogecoin price analysis

On December 21st, Dogecoin (DOGE) attempted to initiate a rebound; however, the selling pressure prevailed and the moving averages were effectively guarded by the bears.

Based on the bearish crossover in moving averages and the RSI being in negative territory, it seems the market trend leans more towards a decrease. The Dogecoin (DOGE) price relative to Tether (USDT) might drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of approximately $0.27 initially, potentially falling further to around $0.23 later on.

As a researcher, I’m projecting that my current bearish outlook might prove incorrect in the short term if the bulls manage to drive and sustain the price above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.36. If this happens, the pair could potentially rise towards $0.43, a level I anticipate may serve as significant resistance.

Cardano price analysis

On December 19th, the price of Cardano (ADA) dropped below its neckline, marking the completion of a bearish “head-and-shoulders” chart pattern.

On December 21st, the bulls made an attempt to initiate a rebound, but they encountered significant opposition at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of approximately $0.99. Currently, the bears are striving to maintain the ADA/USDT pair below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is around $0.88. This situation could potentially lead to a drop in price towards $0.70.

Instead of falling as some might expect, should the price increase beyond its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), this could indicate that buyers are acting at lower prices. This situation might catch out numerous bearish traders, potentially driving the pair closer to the $1.18 mark.

Avalanche price analysis

On December 19, Avalanche (AVAX) dropped beneath its 50-day Simple Moving Average ($40.75), and the bears managed to prevent the bulls from regaining that level on December 21. In simpler terms, AVAX fell below a key average price, and the bears were able to keep the bulls from pushing it back up on December 21.

With a declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $43.52 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the bearish zone, it appears that bears are dominating the market. If sellers manage to push the price below $33.60, there’s a possibility of the AVAX/USDT pair plummeting further to around $30.50.

As a crypto investor, I’m observing that if we want to see a resurgence in buying activity, it’s crucial that we manage to drive and maintain the price above our 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). If successful, this could pave the way for a potential rally towards the resistance zone between $51 and $56.

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2024-12-23 21:25