As a seasoned researcher with over a decade of experience in the crypto market, I can confidently say that this Bitcoin analysis is intriguing and well-supported by data. The quantile model presented by Sina offers a unique perspective on BTC‘s price movement, and it aligns with my observations about Bitcoin’s tendency to spend approximately one third of its time in each zone.
The substantial 9.84% weekly increase in Bitcoin’s (BTC) value indicates a robust breakthrough, surpassing the downward trendline that had been established since March 2024, signaling a potentially bullish market trend.
Based on the information provided, we can say that Sina, a partner at 21st Capital, has pointed out that the current value of Bitcoin is within the predicted lower band of its price range for the year 2025, as suggested by their quantile model.
Bitcoin quantile model highlights 3 price range for BTC
In simpler terms, Sina shared research which categorized the potential outcomes of Bitcoin based on a quantile regression approach, and he identified and described three distinct areas where Bitcoin might be located in the year 2025.
The analyst pointed out that each area stood for distinct price levels and consumer moods, respectively referred to as cool, neutral, and heated.
For the year 2025, the “cold” or lower zone, which is below the 33% percentile, is projected to fall between $55,000 and $85,000. This range includes Bitcoin’s current price and represents a potential minimum value for BTC. Experienced investors are advised to start accumulating holdings while maintaining a long-term outlook with hopes of surpassing $100,000.
In simpler terms, the “warm” zone, which covers the 33% to 66% percentile, lies between $85,000 and $136,000. As Bitcoin sets new record highs and enters a phase of price discovery, Sina predicts that most retail investors will focus on this value range. Investors might progressively increase their holdings within this band, potentially taking on higher than usual exposure.
The “high” area (encompassing the 66th percentile to the 99th percentile) predicts that Bitcoin’s price could fall within $136,000 to $285,000 by the year 2025. This is where Bitcoin is forecasted to stabilize for roughly a third of the following year, as stated by Sina.
“The 33% quantile ranges coincide perfectly with bitcoin phase transitions. Bitcoin just likes to spend 1/3 of its time in each zone and then transition to the other zone like clockwork. Most of the bear market is (33%, and bull market euphoria begins at) 66%.”
Sina pointed out that price fluctuations would be greatest in the high-activity area, as frequent selling and heavily leveraged trades could trigger swift market changes due to rapid reversals.
Bitcoin price needs support at $68,500
According to Intotheblock, a platform that analyzes transactions on the blockchain, the price level of $68,500 for Bitcoin has historically been significant. In 2021, Bitcoin reached its highest prices ever, between $68,000 and $69,000, which were the peaks in previous market rallies. The current data shows that a large amount of activity is taking place around these previous high levels, with over 320,000 active addresses engaging with Bitcoin at these price points.
Over 68% of the approximately 320,000 active Bitcoin addresses have transacted with it at an average price point of $68,572. Given this high percentage of interaction among investors, there’s a possibility that Bitcoin might establish support in the vicinity of this price range on higher time frames (HTF), as the interest of these holders could influence the overall market trend.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing a drop of about 3% over the day, bringing its value down to approximately $67,000, which is a decrease from its peak on Monday at $69,555.
On the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin (BTC) is finding support at the level of its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which lines up with the resistance point of approximately $67,000. Breaking above $68,500 could further fuel BTC’s uptrend, but if it hovers around the current price for a while, there might be a more significant correction this week.
In this piece, we’re providing information in a broad sense, and it’s essential to understand that it doesn’t constitute legal or investment advice. The perspectives, ideas, and opinions shared are solely those of the author and may not align with the views and beliefs of CryptoMoon.
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2024-10-21 22:41