The movie Sinners is already a major success, earning both critical praise and significant box office revenue – it currently holds a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and has grossed $368 million worldwide. But its achievements don’t stop there. Sinners has now made Oscar history by receiving a remarkable 16 nominations, surpassing the previous record of 14 nominations shared by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land.
With a budget of about $100 million, the film brilliantly combined technical skill, a compelling story, and strong acting, leading to widespread recognition. It received nominations for Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Best Director (Ryan Coogler), and, importantly, Best Picture. While expected, the Best Picture nomination is significant: it makes the film only the eighth horror movie ever to be considered for the Academy Award for Best Picture, as shown in the following table.
| Oscars Year | Movie |
|---|---|
| 1974 | The Exorcist |
| 1976 | Jaws |
| 1992 | The Silence of the Lambs |
| 2000 | The Sixth Sense |
| 2011 | Black Swan |
| 2018 | Get Out |
| 2025 | The Substance |
| 2026 | Sinners |
The fact that Sinners has received such recognition is already a significant accomplishment, but it has the potential to achieve something even more remarkable. Historically, only one horror film has ever won the Academy Award for Best Picture: The Silence of the Lambs, which won in 1992. Could Sinners break that thirty-year streak and do the same?
Will Sinners Win Best Picture?
While Sinners was already a frontrunner, its impressive 16 nominations have solidified its position as the clear favorite. This widespread recognition across the Academy makes it a likely winner in many categories. It’s evident the film has resonated deeply with voters, and given its cultural impact and overall quality, it’s a strong contender they’ll likely want to honor.
As a huge Oscars fan, I always find myself looking back at past winners and near-misses when trying to predict the future. It’s interesting to remember that films like All About Eve and Titanic took home Best Picture, but La La Land suffered a truly shocking loss to Moonlight – they were even mistakenly announced as the winners! That makes Sinners‘ strong showing look good, but honestly, there aren’t that many films to compare it to. What really matters, though, is how the Academy has been voting lately. The Academy has changed a lot in recent years, becoming more diverse, and that really impacts the trends we see. If you look at the most nominated films from just this decade, the picture shifts a bit…
| Oscars Year | Most Nominated Movie | Best Picture Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Joker (11) | Parasite |
| 2021 | Mank (10) | Nomadland |
| 2022 | The Power of the Dog (12) | CODA |
| 2023 | Everything Everywhere All At Once (11) | Everything Everywhere All At Once |
| 2024 | Oppenheimer (13) | Oppenheimer |
| 2025 | Emilia Perez (13) | Anora |
As a film fan, I’ve noticed a pattern with Best Picture winners this decade. It’s rare for the most-nominated film to actually take home the prize – it’s only happened twice! But interestingly, those two wins feel a lot like what’s happening with Sinners right now. Both those films, like Sinners, really became cultural moments – Everything Everywhere All at Once was a total word-of-mouth hit, and Barbenheimer was just huge. Joker and Emilia Perez both faced some serious controversy which likely hurt their chances, and it’s worth remembering that Emilia Perez, Mank, and Power of the Dog were all Netflix films – and so far, no Netflix movie has ever won Best Picture. It feels like Sinners is tapping into something similar to those previous winners.
Just a few months ago, One Battle After Another seemed like the likely winner, but now it’s a close competition between two films (and its 13 nominations are still impressive). Sinners has an edge because it didn’t have any major nomination surprises. One Battle After Another missed out on a Best Actress nomination for Chase Infiniti, and Hamnet’s Paul Mescal wasn’t nominated for Best Supporting Actor. Guillermo del Toro also didn’t receive a Best Director nomination for Frankenstein, and there were other similar omissions. Sinners seems to have wider support, which is a positive sign, and it appears to be a strong contender in important categories that often predict the Best Picture winner, like Coogler’s nomination for Original Screenplay.
We’re still at the beginning of awards season, so things could change significantly. Upcoming awards like the PGA and Actors Guild Awards will be important indicators. While Sinners lost Best Drama to Hamnet at the Golden Globes, and One Battle won for Musical/Comedy, this isn’t a major setback. The Golden Globes often goes its own way – in the last ten years, only two Golden Globe winners for either drama or musical/comedy have gone on to win Best Picture (Nomadland and Oppenheimer). In fact, the Golden Globe winner for Musical/Comedy hasn’t won Best Picture since the surprise win of Green Book in 2019, which might not be a good sign for Paul Thomas Anderson’s film.
As a film buff, I’m really excited to see how this all plays out over the rest of the season. Will these two frontrunners continue to pull ahead, or could a surprise contender emerge from the pack? It’s always about building momentum and the stories around the films, and things are about to get intense as studios really start campaigning and, let’s be real, some drama is bound to happen.
Currently, considering its broader appeal, I think Anderson has a good chance of winning Best Director, and Sinners could take Best Picture, finally giving a well-deserved win to the horror genre. The Academy has historically overlooked horror films, and Sinners feels particularly impactful, much like Get Out was. In fact, since Silence of the Lambs, Sinners is the most deserving horror film to win the top prize – the Academy made a mistake not awarding Get Out, and it would be surprising if they repeated that error. We’ll know for sure in a couple of months.
Sinners is available to stream on HBO Max. The 98th Academy Awards will take place March 15th, 2026.
What are your thoughts on whether Sinners deserves to win Best Picture? Share your opinion and discuss it with others in the ComicBook Forum!
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2026-01-23 23:42