Solana’s record $318B transfer volume ‘bot driven’ — Will SOL price suffer?

As a seasoned researcher with a penchant for uncovering the truth behind the numbers, I find myself intrigued by the recent surge in activity on Solana (SOL) blockchain. On one hand, we see record-breaking transfer volumes and all-time highs in network revenue, daily fees, DEX volume, and even real economic value. These figures are indeed impressive and have certainly caught my attention.


It appears that the transfer volume on the Solana blockchain has reached unprecedented heights lately, according to reports. However, a market analysis firm called Glassnode suggests that much of this activity might be automated by bots.

On November 19th, I stumbled upon a post on X by Glassnode that caught my attention. They pointed out that the transfer volume for Solana reached an unprecedented peak of $318 billion on November 16th, marking a new record in its blockchain activity.

This is almost three times SOL’s total market capitalization, which is currently at $112.5 billion. The number of total active addresses on Solana had spiked to 22 million. 

At approximately the same time, the on-chain analytics company observed a decrease in both the average and median transaction volumes.

The increase in Solana’s growth makes one wonder about its authenticity, as genuine organic growth would typically be matched by a corresponding rise in averages.

In an attempt to explain this phenomenon, Glassnode said:

“This pattern of network activity inflation may be indicative of bot-driven activity, which has historically contributed to similar trends on Solana.”

It’s quite possible that the increase in activity has contributed to the recent rise in fees and earnings for the network.

On the 20th of November, I witnessed an all-time high daily income for Solana, reaching nearly $6 million. Remarkably, network users collectively paid a whopping $7.63 million in transaction fees, as indicated by the data from DefiLlama.

According to Blockworks Research, the real economic value generated by Solana hit a record peak of $26 million on November 19.

On November 19th, the layer-1 network saw its greatest-ever volume in decentralized exchange (DEX) transactions at $6.93 billion, with Raydium accounting for a significant 74% of Solana’s DEX trading volume on that day, according to data from DefiLlama.

Upon further examination, it’s clear that many of Raydium’s liquidity pools contain minimal or no actual liquidity, yet they still record substantial trading volumes.

To illustrate, the SOL-HAT swimming pool contained merely $7 worth of assets, yet it handled a massive $400,000 in trades within a 24-hour period.

It seems likely that a significant portion of Solana’s transaction activity might originate from automated programs (bots) or non-human trading actions, rather than organic user interactions.

As a researcher, I’ve observed that Glassnode hasn’t made such claims about inorganic activity on Solana just once. On November 4th, they suggested that an unusual surge in on-chain transfer volume on Solana was instigated by a high-activity wallet operating multiple accounts.

Previously, as we at CryptoMoon mentioned, Flip Research, a pseudonymous expert, suggested that much of the activity on the Solana network might be automated through bots.

Some analysts question whether the activity levels on Solana’s network as stated recently might be exaggerated because of wash trading in meme-based coins. This has sparked doubts about the true direction of the network’s future expansion path.

SOL could “soar straight to $400”

Despite a surge in network activity on Solana recently, this has not failed to ignite curiosity among investors. In fact, traders are optimistic about the potential of Solana’s token (SOL).

Anonymously, a crypto expert known as Titan predicts that the price of SOL might reach around $400, given its current tendency to break free from a cup-and-handle chart formation.

Experienced trader Peter Brandt expressed a comparable viewpoint, suggesting that Solana’s recent rise could potentially push its price even higher in the near term, with an estimated peak of approximately $275.

“Oftentimes, the price moves in swings, where the swings are relatively equal in price. I am sure Elliott traders get quite precise (as they tend to do ), but I just use swing targets as a guide.”

In simpler terms, the strong upward trend in Solana’s value could signal the start of a larger bullish market phase. Over the past week, its price has climbed by 15%, and it has increased by 43% over the last month to reach $238 at the time this was written.

On November 18th, this surge pushed its market capitalization to a record peak of $117.8 billion, solidifying its status among the top four largest digital currencies in terms of market worth.

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2024-11-20 13:51