Well now, gather ’round, folks, for I have a tale to spin about our dear friend Solana (SOL). On the fine day of February 28, 2025, this plucky little altcoin took a nosedive to a lowly $125, a price that would make even the most stoic investor shed a tear or two. But lo and behold! Just when you thought it was curtains for our hero, a 16% relief rally burst forth like a jack-in-the-box after the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) decided to throw a party with the launch of Solana futures on March 17. Now, if only the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would give it the ol’ thumbs up!
🚨 NEW: CME Group to launch Solana futures on March 17, pending regulatory review by the CFTC.
— CryptoMoon (@CryptoMoon) February 28, 2025
Solana Bears Can’t Keep SOL Down!
Since the 24th of February, Solana has been on a downward spiral, forming a series of lower lows that would make a rollercoaster jealous, culminating in that fateful $125 mark. But wait! A glimmer of hope appeared in the form of a bullish divergence between the price and the relative strength index (RSI). Who knew that numbers could be so dramatic?
As the chart reveals, this rally on the 4-hour chart was like a phoenix rising from the ashes, thanks to those bullish divergences. This little signal even led to BTC’s swing pattern failure on the 1-day chart. Now, if that doesn’t sound like a soap opera, I don’t know what does!
A swing pattern failure, dear reader, is a fancy term for when the trend decides to take a vacation, leaving us to ponder the mysteries of the market.
As the wise analysts have noted, Solana is aiming to close above its previous three days, and if it can manage to close above $143, we might just validate that bullish SFP. The relief rally came after the RSI decided to take a dip into oversold territory, marking its lowest level since June 2023, when Solana was a mere $15. Ah, the good old days!
Now, the immediate overhead resistance is perched at $160, and flipping this level into support would be like finding a dollar bill in an old coat pocket—unexpected but delightful!
Will SOL Take Another Dive in March?
As the gossip mill has churned over the past month, Solana’s token unlocks are set to go live on March 1, unleashing a whopping 11.2 million SOL into the wild. This will result in a 2.84% increase in the total market cap, which is currently worth a staggering $1.62 billion. Can you believe it?
This unlock event is a veritable buffet for investors, with companies like Galaxy, Pantera, and Figure looking to feast on between $150 million to $3 billion in unrealized gains. Talk about a potluck!
While the market holds its breath for the impending volatility, Keyrock Trading, a crypto markets maker platform, has donned its fortune-telling hat and predicted the outcome based on data from over 16,000 token events. They’ve noted that investor-based unlocks typically see an average of a 5% correction 30 days before the event. In this case, SOL has already taken a significant 60% tumble over the past month. Ouch!
Keyrock Trading has dubbed the unlock event a medium-size affair (1-5% supply) and stated,
“Medium unlocks historically see an ~8% decline within 30 days post-unlock.”
So, based on this data, it seems SOL might just feel a bit of downward pressure in the short term after March 1. Our friend Jeremy, a crypto trader with a knack for predictions
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2025-02-28 23:20