Super Mario Galaxy Box Office Projections Lower Than First Movie (But There’s Still Good News)

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Movie theaters are getting a boost from strong ticket sales. First, Project Hail Mary had a fantastic opening weekend, and now audiences are eagerly awaiting The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. This animated sequel to 2023’s hugely successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie (which earned over $1 billion globally) is expected to be another big hit. Universal Pictures is releasing it during the same Easter weekend as the first film, hoping for similar results, and early predictions about how much money it will make are now available.

Sources at Variety predict The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will make between $175 and $180 million in the U.S. during its first five days, starting with its release on April 1st. It’s also expected to earn at least another $175 million internationally, bringing its worldwide opening total to between $350 and $375 million. While this is slightly lower than the opening weekend for The Super Mario Bros. Movie a few years ago ($204 million domestically, $377 million globally), even the lower end of these predictions would still make it the highest-grossing opening weekend of 2026, surpassing the $140 million earned by Project Hail Mary.

Can The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Exceed Box Office Projections?

While early predictions show The Super Mario Bros. Movie is expected to perform very well in theaters, it will be interesting to see if it exceeds those forecasts. Recent trends suggest this is possible, as several films have surprised everyone with their success. For example, Hoppers was initially predicted to earn $36-38 million domestically but actually made $46 million in North America – the best opening weekend for an original animated film in almost a decade. Similarly, Project Hail Mary also exceeded expectations, earning $80 million domestically upon release.

Both Hoppers and Project Hail Mary benefited from people talking positively about them, which clearly boosted ticket sales. The Super Mario Bros. Movie is different, though. Hoppers and Project Hail Mary weren’t part of an existing series, so good reviews from audiences were essential to attract viewers. Super Mario Bros. Movie already has a built-in fanbase and is based on a popular franchise, meaning it’s likely to succeed regardless of what critics say—at least initially. The first Super Mario Bros. Movie received mixed reviews but still performed incredibly well at the box office.

Following the success of the first film, Illumination and Nintendo are making the sequel bigger and more ambitious. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie promises a grand adventure across space, and will include other beloved Nintendo characters – Glen Powell, for example, is voicing Fox McCloud. These character crossovers are a major draw, potentially boosting ticket sales and making the sequel a must-see event, especially for longtime Nintendo fans. Many are hoping the movie will hint at or even set up a future Super Smash Bros. film, and fans are eager for confirmation to avoid spoilers.

The new Super Mario Galaxy Movie doesn’t have much competition in theaters right now. While Hoppers could have drawn away some of the same families, that movie was released about a month ago and has already earned most of its money. Although Hoppers has done well for an original Pixar film since the pandemic—it’s close to earning $300 million worldwide—it wasn’t popular enough to discourage people from seeing another family movie, especially one based on the well-known Mario series. Demand for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is expected to be high.

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2026-03-31 20:18