The Cryptic Whirlwind: Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride as Tariffs Reign Supreme! 🎢💸

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Ah, this week, Bitcoin (BTC) treads upon the treacherous patch of yesteryears, where tariff tumult threatens to draw it back towards the dismal shadow of 2021.

  • As if in a melodrama of tragic proportions, Bitcoin relinquishes its robust support lines with reckless abandon, completing yet another precarious “death cross” on the daily chart against USD. Is this the ghost of bears past? 🐻

  • The air thickens as CPI week looms, overshadowed by the United States’ sweeping trade tariffs, casting a pall over global stock markets like a thundercloud over a merriment-filled picnic.

  • Market participants, both in the crypto realm and in the sanctified halls of traditional finance, take liberties in drawing alarming comparisons to “Black Monday” of 1987 and the hapless crash of 2020. History, it seems, is on repeat! 📜🔄

  • The speculative souls of Bitcoin, evidently bereft of their fortunes, find themselves tantalizingly close to the precipice of panic selling. Oh, the drama! 💔

  • The specter of sentiment is but a whisper; the TradFi Fear & Greed Index, the indicator of human emotion in markets, marks its lowest point in history. A fitting background score for this tragic tale! 🎭

BTC Price “Death Cross” Sets the Stage for 2021’s Echoes

Bitcoin appears on the brink of tumbling beneath its once-celebrated all-time high from March 2024. The meticulous examinations by CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView unveil a story of forgotten glories resurfacing.

Having slipped below the sacred threshold of $75,000 for the first time since the enchanting month of November, BTC/USD finds itself revisiting those once-glorious support lines — the illustrious $69,000, a figure that danced in 2021’s spotlight.

The nosedive, a mere echo of stock market misfortunes, caught many a trader off guard, leaving them as bewildered as a cat in a dog park.

“Is our uncorrelated hedge in the room right now?” — Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 6, 2025

“This, indeed, is Bitcoin’s last chance to maintain a semblance of its macro uptrend,” noted popular soothsayer Kevin Svenson, cautioning the faithful on X. 🚨

The once-reliable 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $77,000 now lies in shambles, a casualty of the tumultuous tides.

Yet, in an X thread that took on the air of prophetic revelation, the astute trader CrypNuevo remarked that price defying this level could awaken opportunities for a revival.

“Should we plunge below post support, but then rise above it again, I shan’t ignore this uncanny deviation as my trigger for potential resurgence to $87k,” he elaborated, weaving tales of transitions and transformations.

Meanwhile, traders at Material Indicators regards the telling “death cross” appearing in daily timeframes as a distress signal, its ominous warning heralding a critical support test that lies ahead. 📉

“Stay tuned…”

CPI Week Confronts Us with Imminent Rate Cuts

In a twist of fate reminiscent of ancient fables, US trade tariffs remain the centerpiece of discourse across the globe’s financial stage.

Measures from last week still cast their long shadows, and a sense of foreboding envelops risk assets as anticipations of further tariffs scheduled for April 9 surge forth.

During his weekend endeavors with mainstream media, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick resonated the grim refrain, “The tariffs are coming!” A phrase that would resonate through the ages! 📢

With emotions spiraling and panic gripping the hearts of many, the market barely glances at looming catalysts of volatility that await. Like a forgotten melody, they play second fiddle.

These catalysts are rooted in the fabric of US inflation data, where the heavy cloak of tariffs threatens unforeseen price surges.

In the days of April 10 and 11, the sacred prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are set to unveil themselves to the world.

Jerome Powell, the esteemed chair of the Federal Reserve, previously suggested that while tariffs would leave a mark on the inflation front, gauging their true impact is akin to seeing a shadow without the sun.

“As new policies dawn upon us, a clearer picture shall emerge regarding the implications for the economy and monetary policy,” he wisely remarked. ⏳

Market expectations shift like the sands of time, revealing a consensus that leans towards a 0.25% rate cut during the Fed’s May congregation, a date that arrives sooner than previously anticipated. ⌛

Whispers amongst informal guilds—those trading on social media and fortune-telling platforms like Polymarket—hint at the necessity of an “emergency” cut that may soon be thrust upon the masses.

“An emergency rate cut may very well loom on the horizon,” prophesized Anthony Pompliano, CEO of Professional Capital Management, during his weekend reflections. 🔮

“Inflation has dropped to levels unseen since 2020. If this continues to persist, it transforms into a grave concern.”

Are We Destined for a “Black Monday” or a COVID-19 Reprise?

In a nod to the ghost of economic crises past, the ramifications of tariffs ignite fears of a return to market collapse akin to “Black Monday” in 1987.

As reported by CryptoMoon, the reverberations from the first round of tariffs lay the groundwork for mayhem at Wall Street’s impending opening. ⏳

A 10% decline over two consecutive days—this melancholic occurrence has found its company only thrice in history:
October 1987, October 2008, and March 2020… now we add April 2025 to this illustrious roll call.

In the wakes of ’87 and 2020, we bore witness to a market floor; the turbulent condition of 2008 required another month to discern a bottom.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 6, 2025

For trader and philosopher Michaël van de Poppe, crypto’s “Black Monday” has already paid a visit, urging caution and vigilance among hopeful souls.

“I foresee a rollercoaster of events over the next few weeks as we test Bitcoin’s lows. We may dip as low as $70K,” he cautioned those who seek fortune in the abyss. 🎢

Michaël views an emergency Fed rate cut as the sole logical exit to stave off the financial bleeds that haunt risk assets.

Meanwhile, the esteemed Trading resource, The Kobeissi Letter, pointed out seismic upheavals across both Chinese and Japanese stock exchanges. The first circuit breakers since the tempestuous times of March 2020 have emerged, signaling a storm.

“Market sentiment is terribly polarized,” it remarked, drawing eerie parallels to the chaos unleashed in March 2020.

“We observe a wave of apprehension that overshadows all we have encountered since March 2020. Perhaps we are teetering on the brink of panic that exceeds even that dreadful month,” it added.🌀

“A collective dash towards the exits has commenced.”

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders Face Dire Straits

Concerning Bitcoin, it appears that those who are most likely to capitulate are the short-term holders (STHs)—the more adventurous flocks that dove into the fray within the past half-year.

Reports suggest that these traders are most susceptible to the wild swings of BTC’s price, leading to a relentless cycle of panic and despair for the market.

CryptoQuant’s introspective analytics reveal a disheartening trend: short-term holders find themselves increasingly ensnared in red. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a keen observer of the STH cohort’s fortunes, has dipped beneath the comforting level of equilibrium.

“When the STH-SOPR vaunts below 1.0, it signals that short-term investors are awakening to their losses—a classic harbinger of capitulation,” cautioned CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent in a reflective blog entry.

“Reflecting on the tumult of 2024, significant price corrections often coincided with marked drops in STH-SOPR, visibly breaching or plummeting beyond the -2 standard deviation score. Such events—witnessed notably in May, July, and August—aligned with moments of heightened panic among such transient participants!”

With BTC/USD now below $80,000, it finds itself languishing comfortably beneath the collective cost basis of short-term investors. Bitcoin’s total aggregate cost basis currently sits at a modest $43,000. 🪙

Sentiment Hits the Lowest of Lows

In a rather disconcerting yet perhaps humorous twist, the weight of negative sentiment engulfing traditional markets has reached unimaginable depths.

The latest readings from the Fear & Greed Index—a plucky measure of market mood—now languish at an astonishing 4/100. A nadir previously unseen: not even during the chaos of COVID or the aftermath of the FTX dissolution did we plunge to such depths!

“This is uncharted territory,” commented the popular crypto oracle Atlas, scratching his head in bemusement.

Yet even amidst the raging storm, the realm of crypto navigates the tumult with a somewhat sturdier resolve, maintaining a Crypto Fear & Greed Index reading of 23/100 as of April 7.

In whispers fraught with cautious optimism, some figures suggest this chaotic dance may present a ripe moment for “buying the dip”—be it in the world of stocks or cryptocurrencies.

“This does not guarantee the bottom has been unearthed, yet presents an opportunity, at least locally,” formulated the founder of a well-reputed quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund in musings shared on X.

Edwards calculated the scales of bullish and bearish proclamations, deducing that significant risk yet looms, particularly for Bitcoin’s beleaguered bull market.

“To be candid, Bitcoin held its own admirably last week but found itself catching up—leaping downward over the weekend. An unforeseen storm may trigger the daunting correlation of all risk assets, much akin to the scenario we encountered in early 2020,” he articulated, echoing wisdom from the past.

“That said, there’s historically potent relative strength to discern. We shall anticipate Bitcoin to rally vehemently from the depths, whenever that may occur.”

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2025-04-07 11:53