The Golden Globes don’t reliably predict the Oscars, despite being a well-known awards show. Following a major scandal and significant reforms, the Globes have regained some prominence as the second most important awards event. However, the people voting for Golden Globes are completely separate from those who vote for the Oscars, making the results a less useful indicator of Oscar success than other industry awards. Winning a Golden Globe in a category doesn’t give us much insight into who’s likely to win in the same category at the Oscars.
As a movie lover, I’ve always thought the Golden Globes are interesting because of when they happen. They’re right before Oscar nominations are finalized, which means a win can really give a film or actor a last-minute boost. A great acceptance speech – something genuinely moving or exciting – can stick in voters’ minds and, the idea is, make them want to see that person or movie celebrated again at the Oscars. It’s hard to say how much influence it actually has, but when someone really nails it, it definitely adds some extra excitement to what’s already a pretty long awards season.
The Golden Globes awards show happened last night and, as expected, gave us a good preview of what’s shaping up to be a very competitive awards season. The races for the 2026 Oscars just became even more interesting.
The 2026 Acting Races Are Even More Exciting After The Golden Globes
© A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
Everyone focuses on the four main acting awards – Best Actor, Best Actress, and the supporting categories – and while the nominations are always a topic of discussion, the outcomes can sometimes be quite predictable as awards season goes on and we see who’s winning the earlier prizes. These categories often feature well-known actors, but that doesn’t always translate to a thrilling competition.
This year, the race for acting awards is much more unpredictable. For weeks, it seemed like we knew who the frontrunners were, but recent developments have shaken things up. The Golden Globes winners added another layer of surprise, completely changing the landscape.
| 2026 Golden Globes Acting Winners | |
|---|---|
| Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama | Jessie Buckley, Hamnet |
| Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama | Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent |
| Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy | Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You |
| Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy | Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme |
| Best Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture | Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another |
| Best Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture | Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value |
The races for both Supporting Actor and Actress awards are wide open this year. Ariana Grande seemed like a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress after a strong showing last year with Wicked, but the film’s buzz has died down. Amy Madigan was considered the leading contender for her performance in Weapons, however Taylor, Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) are close behind. Any of these actors could take the lead if their films gain more attention, and One Battle After Another was a major winner at the Golden Globes.
Stellan Skarsgård’s win for Best Supporting Actor is particularly interesting because he, like the rest of the acclaimed cast of Sentimental Value, wasn’t nominated for a Screen Actors Guild Award. The SAG award will likely go to either Benicio del Toro or Sean Penn from One Battle After Another, or Paul Mescal for Hamnet. Jacob Elordi recently won the Critics Choice Award for Frankenstein, and that film has received a lot of recognition from other industry groups, making him a strong contender. Skarsgård’s win injects some unpredictability into the race.
The Golden Globes divides its top acting awards into drama and comedy/musical categories, which usually gives two frontrunners a chance to win. That’s what happened this year. Like Alexander Skarsgård, Wagner Moura wasn’t nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, but this win keeps him in contention. While Timothée Chalamet is gaining traction, Ethan Hawke seemed to be the clear favorite. Though young actors rarely win Best Actor at the Oscars, Timothée Chalamet is positioning himself well to potentially break that trend.
The race for Best Actress seemed fairly certain, and Jessie Buckley was the favorite, winning a Golden Globe for her work in Hamnet. However, Rose Byrne has been gaining recognition from critics for the independent film If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and is now a strong contender. With a chance to impress voters right before the Oscars, she could become a serious challenger to the expected winner.
After the Academy Award nominations are revealed, we’ll likely have a clearer idea of who the frontrunners are. The Actor Awards and BAFTAs could further solidify those predictions before the Oscars ceremony. Right now, however, these award races are unusually competitive, and the Golden Globes helped maintain that exciting uncertainty.
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2026-01-12 17:59