The Recession Reaper: Investors Flee from Risk Assets as JPMorgan Ups Odds to 40%

Oh, the drama! The intrigue! The utter despair that has befallen the world of finance! 🤯 It appears that investors have lost their minds, fleeing from risk assets like a bunch of frightened rabbits from a burning barn. And what, pray tell, is the cause of this mass exodus? Why, it’s the specter of a recession, of course! 📉

Economists at JPMorgan, those esteemed arbiters of all things financial, have raised their recession risk to a whopping 40%! Up from 30% at the beginning of 2025, no less. One can almost hear the analysts whispering to each other, “We see a material risk that the US falls into recession this year owing to extreme US policies.” Ah, yes, because nothing says “stable economy” like a dash of extremism. 😂

And if that weren’t enough, Goldman Sachs economists have also joined the recession bandwagon, raising their 12-month recession probability to 20%! They’re like a pair of synchronized swimmers, diving off the high board of economic doom. “The forecast could rise further if the Trump administration remains ‘committed to its policies even in the face of much worse data,'” they warn. Oh, dear reader, it’s enough to make one weep for the state of the world! 💔

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley economists have taken a rather more… shall we say, “pessimistic” view of things. They’ve lowered their economic growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations, predicting a GDP growth of a mere 1.5% in 2025 and a paltry 1.2% in 2026. Ah, the joys of economic stagnation! 😴

But fear not, dear reader, for there are those who would have us believe that all is not lost. Kevin Hassett, a key economic adviser to US President Donald Trump, has been seen wandering the streets, muttering to himself about the “many reasons to be optimistic about the US economy.” Ah, yes, because nothing says “optimism” like a man who’s been drinking too much Kool-Aid. 🍹

And then, of course, there’s Donald Trump himself, who has been seen responding to questions about the possibility of a recession by saying the US economy is going through “a period of transition.” Ah, yes, because nothing says “transition” like a bunch of economic indicators plummeting into the abyss! 🌊

But wait, there’s more! Blockchain betting platform Polymarket has quipped that recession odds are “the best looking chart in finance right now.” Ah, yes, because nothing says “financial stability” like a bunch of gamblers betting on the downfall of the economy! 🤑

The so-called “Trump bump” has, it appears, come to an end. The S&P 500 is now lower than it was before his Nov. 5 US election victory, having lost almost 10% from last month’s high. Ah, yes, because nothing says “economic success” like a bunch of investors fleeing in terror! 🚨

The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has entered a correction, having lost 14% in just three weeks. Ah, yes, because nothing says “financial stability” like a bunch of tech stocks plummeting into the abyss! 🌊

And if that weren’t enough, all US stock markets ended March 10 in the red, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7% to its lowest level since September. Ah, yes, because nothing says “economic success” like a bunch of investors crying themselves to sleep at night! 😭

The Magnificent 7 – America’s top tech firms – have had a tumultuous start to the week, collectively shedding more than $750 billion in market cap in one day. Ah, yes, because nothing says “financial stability” like a bunch of tech giants imploding like a house of cards! 🌪️

Tesla, in particular, has tanked a whopping 15%, becoming the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. Ah, yes, because nothing says “financial success” like a bunch of investors losing their shirts! 💸

AI giant Nvidia lost 5.1%, Apple shed 4.9%, Meta fell 4.4%, and Alphabet lost 4.5% on the day. Ah, yes, because nothing says “financial stability” like a bunch of tech stocks plummeting into the abyss! 🌊

Crypto markets, meanwhile, have plunged to their lowest point since early November, with a 7.5% fall in total market capitalization to $2.6 trillion on March 11. Ah, yes, because nothing says “financial stability” like a bunch of cryptocurrency investors crying themselves to sleep at night! 😭

And finally, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen through previous levels of support, dropping 4% on the day and hitting $76,784 before a minor recovery took the asset back to $79,000 at the time of writing. Ah, yes, because nothing says “financial stability” like a bunch of cryptocurrency investors holding on for dear life! 🚣‍♂️

2025-03-11 07:14

Read More