Toncoin's Wild Ride: Is $4.5 Just a Dream? 🤔💸

Toncoin is basically wearing a “bear” costume on the daily chart.
Whale selling is so steady, it could be a metronome. Recovery? Good luck with that!

So, Toncoin [TON] has decided to take a chill pill and reduce its volatility to record lows. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), our favorite crypto analyst, Ali Martinez, pointed out that the Bollinger Bands are squeezing tighter than my jeans after a weekend binge.

This little squeeze indicates that while things are calm now, a dramatic move could be lurking just around the corner. Will it be a glorious rise or a catastrophic fall? Stay tuned!

Typically, after such low volatility, we expect a price expansion. But the real question is: which way will Toncoin decide to go?

Price action and metrics show caution for buyers

Remember back in August when Toncoin’s daily active addresses peaked like a teenager’s hopes for prom? Yeah, that was when the price retraced from its rally past $7.5. Since then, it’s been a bit of a snooze fest.

Even the November rally was like a party with no guests. The network growth, which tracks new addresses, has been as exciting as watching paint dry since October.

In the last two weeks, both active addresses and network growth have taken a slight dip. Not exactly a party vibe, is it?

The supply distribution chart is showing an uptick in addresses with small holdings (100 TON or fewer) since October. It’s like a club where everyone has a tiny VIP pass but no one’s actually buying drinks.

Meanwhile, the big fish are swimming away, showing active selling. The 10k-100k crowd has grown over the past three weeks but took a little dip last week. Talk about commitment issues!

The OBV of Toncoin has sunk lower than my motivation on a Monday morning, clinging to September lows like it’s a life raft.

The price has lost its recent range lows and is now testing the $3.42 support level, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Sounds fancy, right? But it’s just a number that’s supposed to hold things together.

This critical level was expected to be defended like a castle, but weak network activity and increased selling volume suggest we might be heading south. The swing market structure is firmly bearish on the daily chart. Yikes!

Now, if Bitcoin [BTC] decides to make a comeback, it could give the altcoin market a little pep in its step and inspire some Toncoin bulls. But until the $4.5 level is reclaimed as support, swing traders might want to keep their umbrellas handy.

2025-02-17 16:11

Toncoin’s Wild Ride: Is $4.5 Just a Dream?

Price action and metrics show caution for buyers

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