As a seasoned analyst with years of experience in the financial markets and a keen interest in both cryptocurrency and politics, I find myself utterly fascinated by this recent development in the world of decentralized prediction markets. The astronomical profits raked in by these crypto whales on their pro-Trump bets is nothing short of breathtaking.
Major cryptocurrency investors who placed wagers on Donald Trump’s election win have reaped substantial profits from the top decentralized forecasting platform.
On November 6th, as reported by Lookonchain, the most substantial Trump-wagering account on Polymarket, nicknamed “Theo4,” amassed over $20.4 million in profits from his bets favoring Donald Trump.
A particular enigmatic whale, referred to as “Fredi9999,” earned an impressive sum exceeding $15.6 million, and another unidentified whale, labeled “zxgngl,” amassed over $11 million, as reported in a recent post dated November 6th on Lookonchain.
In October, a total of ten whale accounts collectively invested approximately 70.6 million dollars in USD Coin (USDC), using this amount to wager on Donald Trump’s potential victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
On October 18th, the primary account associated with Fredi boosted Donald Trump’s chances above 60.2% by purchasing approximately $20 million in “Yes” stocks, according to CryptoMoon. On October 28th, the odds for Trump rose to 66%, following a $7.22 million investment in “Yes” shares by zxgngl.
In light of Trump’s predicted win, it seems that a lucrative payoff could be imminent for the big fish in Polymarket, as their profits might materialize once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all announce the same candidate as the winner, as stated by Polymarket’s disclaimer.
On November 6, at 10:46 am UTC, The Associated Press announced that Trump had emerged victorious in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
Over 50% of Trump “Yes” shares are controlled by five whales on Polymarket
On November 4th, the day before Election Day, it’s been found that more than half of the affirmative votes for Donald Trump on the Polymarket platform were managed by just five enigmatic ‘big fish’ or influential individuals.
In a post on October 31st, anonymous political gambler Domer proposed that this situation might lead to a payout of over $81 million for the whales, or large-scale investors.
“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares — including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”
Contrarily, Vice President Kamala Harris’ shares are more dispersed among multiple owners, with the top five shareholders owning just 18% of her “Yes” votes. In comparison, Trump’s largest shareholder possesses a significant 29.1% of his shares, while Harris’ largest shareholder owns only 4.4%. This was pointed out by Domer.
It’s possible that at least four out of the top six individuals betting on Trump, which includes users “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999”, could be managed by a single entity that is quite certain about Trump winning, according to Domer’s statement to CryptoMoon.
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
As a data analyst, I’ve observed that decentralized prediction markets might provide more precise predictions compared to conventional polling methods. The reason being, participants in these markets aren’t merely casting votes, but rather investing their own funds, as suggested by billionaire Elon Musk.
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2024-11-06 14:39