- TRUMP, though cloaked in a bearish guise, hints at a bullish divergence that might just lead to a price bounce.
- The relentless selling pressure of late makes a recovery seem as likely as a snowball in hell, and traders must tread carefully before going long.
Official Trump [TRUMP] has retreated from the $13.84 resistance level. In an analysis piece last week, AMBCrypto astutely noted that the $14-level would likely rebuff the bulls and send the memecoin’s price plummeting further south.
And so it has come to pass. The 23.6% extension level at $11.59 has now transformed into a formidable resistance. What lies ahead for TRUMP?
TRUMP’s Bullish Divergence: A Glimmer of Hope?
Towards the end of February, the market structure took a bullish turn (blue), and the price retested the local highs around $18, only to face a brutal rejection. The speed of the decline left a fair value gap (white box).
This resistance aligned with the 78.6% retracement level. These levels were plotted based on the upward move following the bullish structure break. Even now, their extension levels remain valid.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has been on a steady downtrend, mirroring the price, which underscores the strong selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below zero but has formed a bullish divergence with the price over the past two days.
Thus, a price bounce is not out of the question. It could soar as high as the recent lower high at $11.59 before retracing. A market structure shift would occur if the price closes above $11.59 in a 4-hour trading session. However, it is crucial to remember that TRUMP’s swing structure remains bearish. Breaking the $13.84 level is the key to altering this bearish narrative.
The 1-week liquidation heatmap suggests a potential bearish reversal at the $11-level. The cluster of liquidation levels here could be revisited before a move south to collect the liquidity at $10, before the next move unfolds.
Beyond $11, the $12.82 and $14-levels are critical watchpoints should TRUMP manage to break out above $11.6. Until then, the bias in lower timeframes remains bearish.
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2025-03-13 10:19