It’s becoming increasingly likely, according to betting markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, that President-elect Donald Trump may create a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve once he assumes office on January 20.
In summary, it appears that users on Kalshi and Polymarket, two prediction platforms (Kalshi being a US derivatives exchange and Polymarket specializing in cryptocurrency), have estimated the likelihood of former U.S. President Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve for the United States:
– On Kalshi, the collective probability is almost 70%.
– Meanwhile, on Polymarket, users predict approximately a 42% chance that this could occur during his first 100 days in office (if he were to return).
The odds for betting on both platforms have increased by about 20% since their lowest points in early January, as indicated by the data. Betters are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will reach new all-time highs by the year 2025.
prediction markets operate by allowing individuals to buy and sell contracts linked to particular happenings. The price changes over time according to the anticipated results.
During the lead-up to the US elections in November, Polymarket and Kalshi gained significant attention, handling over $4 billion worth of trades specifically related to the U.S. presidential race. Notably, these platforms predicted Trump’s victory more accurately than conventional polling methods. Additionally, they forecast his party’s success, correctly predicting that they would also take control of the U.S. House and Senate.
Big promises
In July, Trump expressed plans to establish a “strategic national Bitcoin reserve” at the Bitcoin 2024 gathering held in Nashville, Tennessee. He further stated that under his leadership, the U.S. government’s Bitcoin assets would not be liquidated.
In the month of November, Senators, notably Cynthia Lummis who is often referred to as the “Crypto Queen” in Washington D.C., put forth a bill known as the BITCOIN Act. This act aims to establish an American Bitcoin reserve by mandating the Treasury Department to acquire approximately 1 million Bitcoins over a period of five years.
Trump has been reinforcing his supportive stance towards cryptocurrencies over the past few weeks, sparking optimism within the sector that he may indeed fulfill his pledged actions.
On January 16th, according to the New York Post, Trump appears open to broadening a potential reserve to encompass a diverse selection of digital currencies such as USD Coin (USDC), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP).
Trump is said to be preparing to issue an executive order, which could take effect from January 20th upon his return to office, that elevates cryptocurrency as a top national concern.
If a Bitcoin reserve is set up within the United States, it could speed up the acceptance and use of Bitcoin more than the planned releases of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by 2024, according to CoinShares’ analysis in their January 10 blog post.
According to CoinShares, the passing of the Bitcoin Act in the U.S. could potentially have a greater lasting effect on Bitcoin than the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs.
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2025-01-17 21:13