As an analyst with over two decades of experience observing financial markets and political trends, I find myself intrigued by the recent developments surrounding the 2024 presidential election.
Media figure Jim Cramer might have hinted at a potential win for Donald Trump, the ex-President of the U.S., in the 2024 presidential race.
On Monday, November 4th, Cramer analyzed the stock market’s progression and expressed his belief that the movements indicated an increasing trust among investors in Vice President Kamala Harris winning the 2024 presidential election.
“I’m not sure the market’s right about what a Harris presidency would mean for business, but at least now we have a blueprint for what Wall Street thinks it’ll mean.”
Some investors interpret Cramer’s Harris prediction as an indication of President Trump’s re-election, based on what is known as the “opposite” or “counter” Cramer effect. This phenomenon suggests that the result predicted by Jim Cramer does not occur, instead, the opposite happens.
As an analyst, I found myself making a prediction a day prior to the U.S. elections, marking a historical milestone as cryptocurrency emerged as a significant talking point in American politics for the very first time.
A trend-reversal strategy based on Jim Cramer’s stock advice resulted in the creation of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) intended to generate returns by short-selling his recommended stocks. Regrettably, this ETF ceased operations and was liquidated following a mere 10-month run, with total investments amounting to only $2.4 million. Since its inception, the ETF has yielded a disappointing -15%. This situation underscores that Jim Cramer’s predictions aren’t always incorrect.
On October 4th, the odds at Polymarket shifted towards Donald Trump, indicating a significant change from September’s trends. By October 12th, according to CryptoMoon’s report, Trump had gained more than a 10-point lead.
Polymarket whales are betting millions of dollars on a Trump victory
Large-scale investors on Polymarket, often referred to as ‘whales’, are still wagering millions that Donald Trump will win, even on Election Day itself.
On November 5th, a yet-to-be-identified whale, known as “walletmobile,” deposited approximately 4.9 million USD Coins (USDC) onto Polymarket in support of Trump. As per Lookonchain’s data, 2.8 million USDC had already been committed to this cause prior to the 5th.
On November 5th, the top supporter of Trump on Polymarket, known as “zxgngl”, also withdrew an extra $3.1 million in USDC to place more wagers on Trump’s bets.
A rather enigmatic whale on the Polymarket platform has amassed more than $18.5 million in support for Trump through “Yes” votes, and currently stands to make a potential profit exceeding $528,000 if these predictions come true.
On October 28th, CryptoMoon revealed that four significant accounts supporting Trump in Polymarket’s top six were managed by the same individual, “Fredi9999.” This person, who had previously boosted Trump’s chances above 60.2%, had purchased approximately $20 million worth of “Yes” shares up to October 18th.
Yet, the pattern of transactions indicates that the “zxgngl” account appears to have no connection with the Polymarket accounts managed by Fredi.
Furthermore, the enigmatic whale (a large and influential trader) has outdone all the stories about Fredi, reaching the top spot as the largest backer of “Yes” in the Trump marketplace on Polymarket, with over 29.4 million shares purchased.
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2024-11-05 15:25