- Analysts differ on whether Spot SOL ETFs were possible without Futures markets.
Lack of regulatory clarity on SOL could be a challenge, but some analysts are confident of approval if Trump wins.
As an experienced financial analyst, I’ve followed the digital asset market closely and have formed an opinion on the potential approval of U.S. Spot Solana (SOL) ETFs based on available information and market trends.
There’s debate among market participants about the potential launch of U.S. Spot Solana (SOL) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), following applications submitted by digital asset managers VanEck and 21Shares in recent times.
It’s widely accepted that the outcome of U.S. elections may significantly impact the future of Solar Energy (SOL) ETFs. However, there remains ongoing debate about the potential consequences of the absence of Futures-backed SOL ETFs on the approval process.
In a recent Bloomberg interview, Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets research at VanEck, expressed his view that the SEC’s insistence on futures-based ETFs for Bitcoin can be seen as psychological operations. He further remarked,
“A few ETFs, including those focused on uranium and power, don’t rely on futures markets to determine their prices. We believe that with a minor adjustment in the regulatory landscape in Washington, the approval process for this SOL ETF will be successful.”
Galaxy Digital disagrees on SOL ETFs
According to Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, VanEck’s SOL ETF filing can be considered as a way to bet on the outcome of the US election.
With a new administration in place, there was a high probability that it would be approved, particularly given Donald Trump’s return as president.
Sigel shared a comparable perspective. He believed that the approval of the SOL ETF could proceed if Biden secured the presidency, given that the SEC chairman was either dismissed or reclassified SOL as a commodity.
Nevertheless, according to Steve Kurz, Galaxy Digital’s global head of asset management, Sigel’s viewpoint was not in agreement with his own. Kurz emphasized that, considering the existing legal framework and past judicial proceedings, a different perspective appeared more appropriate.
To turn Solana into an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), you first require a futures market for it. Currently, such markets exist for Ethereum, but they’re absent for Solana.
In general, the anticipation among markets that the SOL ETF would receive approval was relatively subdued, with Polymarket estimating a probability of around 13% for approval by 2024.
As a researcher studying the crypto market, I’ve noticed that many industry insiders view Donald Trump in a positive light when it comes to cryptocurrencies. If he were to win the election, this perception could potentially increase the chances of an SOL ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) being approved.
In the past 24 hours, Solana’s (SOL) price on the charts dipped by 1%, landing at $146. However, with a 7% increase over the last week, this decrease is overshadowed by the optimistic news surrounding SOL’s ETF filings.
As a crypto investor, I’ve observed that the technical indicators for Solana (SOL) haven’t shown a clear direction yet based on the latest price data. Therefore, it’s essential to keep an eye on further developments before making any decisive moves in the market.
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2024-07-03 19:03