The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed a tantalising prospect for Bitcoin enthusiasts: the possibility of $136,000 as the next price level of importance, should the current momentum hold.
The Enigmatic $136,000: Bitcoin’s Next Destination?
In a recent thread on X, Glassnode delved into the insights provided by various on-chain indicators regarding Bitcoin’s position in the current cycle. The first metric shared by the analytics firm is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis, which calculates the average acquisition price of those who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.
Below is a chart illustrating the trend in this metric over the last couple of years.
As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price surpassed the STH Cost Basis earlier this year and has since remained above the line, indicating that STHs as a whole have been in a state of net profit.
In the same chart, Glassnode has also marked a few other levels, each corresponding to a specific standard deviation (SD) from the STH Cost Basis. With the recent price surge to a new all-time high (ATH) above $123,000, BTC was able to breach the +1 SD level, which has historically signified heated market conditions.
Although the coin has since retreated below the mark, it still remains close to it. “If this momentum continues, the next key level is $136k (2 +std), a zone that has historically marked elevated profit-taking and local market peaks,” explains Glassnode.
While Bitcoin is not yet overheated from the perspective of the STH Cost Basis model, other indicators paint a different picture. The STH Supply In Profit, an indicator tracking the percentage of the cohort’s supply that’s sitting on some gain, has recently soared far above the 88% threshold that has separated high-risk euphoric phases.
Another metric, measuring the percentage of STH volume that’s leading to profit realization, also similarly saw a jump significantly above the historical overheated cutoff of 62%.
“Such spikes often occur multiple times in bull markets, but repeated signals at these levels typically precede local tops and warrant caution,” notes the analytics firm.
During this spike of profit-taking, the ratio between the profit and loss being realized by the Bitcoin STHs spiked to a 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) value of 39.8.
This is a value that’s, once again, extreme by historical standards. That said, spikes like this have generally occurred multiple times over the course of a cycle, before a top is finally attained.
“Historically, cycle tops follow with a lag, leaving room for further upside,” says Glassnode. “However, risk is elevated and the market becomes increasingly sensitive to external shocks. The current pullback aligns with this pattern.”
BTC Price Update
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $118,800, up more than 8% in the last seven days.
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2025-07-17 00:42