Unmasking the 180% Axie Infinity Surge: Illusion or Masterstroke?

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Axie Infinity is breathing fire today. AXS skyrocketed by about 17%, as if it discovered the secret to eternal youth. This leap confirms the breakout teased earlier, propelling the token to a staggering 180% increase in a single moon cycle-truly a feat worthy of laurels or perhaps just some clever liquidity shuffling. Among the top show-offs in the GameFi circus, AXS struts proudly.

But therein lies a question as subtle as a sledgehammer-are we witnessing genuine demand or merely a grand exit party for those who hold the keys? The charts and the blockchain whisper a tale more tangled than a Kafka novel.

Breakout? Sure. Momentum? Well, Actually, Not So Much.

The AXS breakout was neater than a military parade.

Breaking free from a bullish flag after a nice little quiet spell, the price charted a red carpet to $2.54, up about 168% from the base. But hold your applause-what happened at $2.54 revealed the true nature of the beast.

Price got slapped back with a long upward wick-like a slap in the face after a good dinner-signaling active selling rather than the passive ‘take profits’ ones might wish to tell themselves. So much for the ‘buy the dips’ mantra; supply levels are real, and they fight dirty.

Now, the momentum-like a tired weightlifter-starts to lose steam.

Between January 17 and 21, the price seemingly climbed higher highs, yet the RSI-the momentum meter-dipped into lower highs. What’s that? Bears in the playground whispering about divergence? When prices ascended but the RSI faltered, it’s like trying to run uphill with a backpack full of bricks. Next candle below $2.54 with RSI still lower? Confirmed conversation with bearish divergence-fireworks are over, folks.

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In short, the breakout is not invalid but is as fragile as a house of cards in a hurricane.

It demands fresh demand-more than the ghosts of early buyers-to keep the rally alive. Without that, we’re staring at a potential pullback or worse-a full-blown reversal.

Big Shooters Sell Like It’s Hot While Short-Term Chasers Fall for the Trick

The on-chain whispers tell us this rally is as stable as a house built on sand.

From January 13, AXS bounced from about $0.95 all the way to $2.39-a 151% leap. Meanwhile, whale supply shrank from 255.16 million to 244 million AXS-roughly 11.2 million dumped into rising prices. Ah, the sweet taste of profit, or at least pretending to be profits.

The HODL waves tell a story with more twists than a soap opera.

Long-term holders (1-2 years) evaporated from 13.73% to 4.16%-a clear sign they are cashing out faster than a street magician’s rabbit. This rally seems to be an orchestrated sell-off in disguise, as the seasoned hands exit stage left.

The NUPL indicator swirls around like a drunk sailor-measuring profit versus loss. Despite the rally, the holders are still underwater, with losses easing from −3.4 to −0.5. They’re selling off in hopes of recouping, not holding tight for the big payday.

Meanwhile, the impulsive short-term traders (1-3 months) are the true believers-buying with the fervor of a preacher chasing televangelists, increasing their share by over 80%. They are the classic exit-liquidity herd: long-term whales shuffling out while the quick to chase the hype try to ride this wave to the horizon.

It’s the age-old game: long-term vets exit with losses minimized, while the short-term frenetics chase the illusion of momentum.

Support or Sauna? Where the Exit Liquidity Turns Hot and Risky

The cost basis chart reveals where this house of cards might tumble-support levels that could turn into traps.

The sweet spot-$2.17-$2.20-is where around 1.99 million AXS collected their chips. Keep above, and it’s just a friendly dip; break below, and the carnage begins.

The ultimate support lies at $1.62-$1.64, where about 3.50 million AXS ‘met their fate,’ waiting to see if the short-term buyers can hold this line or if they’ll be swallowed whole.

For the bulls, the golden ticket is a clean daily close above $2.54-just 6% more than now-aiming for $2.72 or even $3.01. But beware: until then, the moves up are more like a squirrel on caffeine-full of frantic energy but destined to hit the wall of selling pressure.

Until that day, expect the rally to be a brawl between buyers eager to escape and sellers eager to cash out-because that’s what markets do best, after all-plot twists and all.

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2026-01-22 00:38