Watch out, Google: OpenAI could generate $25 billion in annual ad revenue by 2030 — but the ChatGPT maker is still in danger of facing bankruptcy by 2027

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OpenAI recently revealed it will be adding advertisements to ChatGPT. Users of the free and basic subscription plans will likely begin seeing these ads within the next few weeks as they use the chatbot.

As a researcher following OpenAI, I noticed the recent introduction of ads in ChatGPT was met with a lot of varied reactions. It’s interesting because even CEO Sam Altman had previously suggested that advertising would only be considered if other options didn’t work out. He actually said that combining ads and AI felt particularly concerning to him, and that he viewed ads as a last-resort solution for generating revenue.

At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis commented on OpenAI’s decision to add advertisements to ChatGPT. He suggested they might be doing so to increase their income, saying, “Maybe they feel they need to make more revenue.”

A Google executive initially stated they weren’t planning to include ads in the Gemini app. But now, after OpenAI started showing ads in ChatGPT, Google might need to rethink that decision.

Mark Mahaney, a financial and tech analyst at Evercore ISI, believes OpenAI could be earning over $25 billion each year from advertising by 2030, if their plans succeed. According to Business Insider, Mahaney stated that reaching “several billion dollars in ad revenue in 2026, going to $25B+ by 2030” is a realistic possibility.

According to Mahaney, ChatGPT is expected to gain a massive number of users. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman believes the company could reach $100 billion in annual revenue by 2027, and he doesn’t think the current excitement around AI is a bubble.

OpenAI is making significant progress and expects to reach a major financial goal. The company’s CFO, Sarah Friar, announced that revenue jumped to $20 billion in 2025, compared to just $2 billion in 2023.

By 2025, Google Search and YouTube are estimated to have earned as much as $300 billion from advertising. Meanwhile, ChatGPT is gaining popularity, with around 800 million users each week, according to Sam Altman. This large user base could be very valuable for advertisers because the chatbot’s conversations often reveal what users are looking for and need.

OpenAI has stated that even with the introduction of ads in ChatGPT, user privacy will be protected. The company will not share or sell user data to advertisers, ensuring conversations remain private.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT is now a direct competitor to Google’s advertising business. By providing a new and interesting way for people to find products and services, ChatGPT could attract users away from Google, especially if its ads are useful and don’t disrupt the user experience. This could mean less business for Google’s search advertising.

Evercore ISI, Mark Mahaney

The executive also pointed out that if OpenAI created an ad format that felt like a conversation – letting customers discuss what they might buy – it could completely change advertising. This would be highly appealing to advertisers because it would create strong engagement from people genuinely interested in making a purchase.

It remains to be seen if OpenAI can resolve its financial difficulties. Current forecasts indicate a potential loss of $14 billion in 2026, which could lead to bankruptcy around the middle of 2027.

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2026-01-22 15:41