Oh, what a tangled web we weave when employment data decides to steal the show! On this fateful day, Feb. 7, Bitcoin (BTC) found itself in a rather precarious position, teetering on the edge of a cliff, as prediction markets whispered ominous tales of a “huge beat” for US employment. Can you hear the dramatic music playing in the background? 🎵
When Jobs Become the Villain: Bitcoin’s Unwelcome Headwind 😱
Our dear digital darling, BTC, hovered precariously around $97,000, having taken a tumble of up to 3.5% the day prior. It seems even Bitcoin can’t escape the clutches of fate when US jobless claims come knocking, albeit slightly higher than anticipated. While one might think this would be a boon for risk assets, our cryptic hero had no intention of breaking out the champagne. Oh, the drama!
But fear not, dear reader, for our tale has only just begun. Market commentators, those soothsayers of the financial realm, foretold of impending employment-related market upheaval. And who better to guide us through this tempest than the wise trading resource, The Kobeissi Letter?
In a post on X on Feb. 6, Kobeissi posed the question that sent shivers down the spine of every crypto enthusiast: “Are we set for a huge jobs report beat tomorrow?” With the suspense building, Kobeissi delved into the heart of the matter, discussing the upcoming data regarding jobs added in January. A widening gap between official estimates and the odds offered by prediction service Kalshi suggested that more risk-asset pressure could be lurking just around the corner. Can you feel the tension mounting?
Should the labor market experience growth beyond expectations, the implications for financial policy would be profound. The Federal Reserve, that puppet master pulling the strings, would be able to maintain higher interest rates for longer, casting a shadow over risk assets. But fear not, for this story has many twists and turns.
“Prediction markets currently expect that 238,000 jobs were added to the US economy in January, per Kalshi. In fact, there’s a 28% chance that over 300,000 jobs were added in January,” the post continued, leaving us on the edge of our seats.
As if the plot couldn’t thicken any further, the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool revealed a lack of conviction among the markets regarding further policy easing in Q1. Even a minuscule 0.25% interest rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting in March attracted odds of just 14.5%. The stage is set for a thrilling conclusion, dear reader.
When Liquidity Hunts Become the Main Event: BTC Price Forecasts 🎲💰
Amidst the chaos, BTC price action remained steadfast within its entrenched range, with clear bands of liquidity acting as barriers to significant volatility. Enter the popular trader, Mark Cullen, who shed light on the situation in his post to X followers. “Short term liquidity is surrounding current price, so wouldn’t surprise me for both sides to get run before the real move occurs,” he explained, adding a touch of intrigue to our tale.
“With both the weekly showing significant liquidity to the upside, my guess would be a run of the 95k liquidity and then up for the significant areas of interest above the last month’s highs.” The plot thickens, doesn’t it?
But wait, there’s more! Fellow trader Skew chimed in, suggesting that an external volatility catalyst was needed to ignite a stronger BTC price trend. In a post about the Binance spot market, Skew stated, “Another very much pinned market till resolution (usually driven by macro),” leaving us hanging on the edge of our seats once again.
“Currently market quotes the price range for today’s expected price action ($100K – $95K).” The suspense is almost too much to bear!
And just when you thought the story was over, Skew reminded us of the importance of the day’s employment figures. As the curtain falls on this chapter, dear reader, remember that in the world of finance, nothing is ever truly certain. Until we meet again, may your investments be bold and your returns plentiful! 🌟💰
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2025-02-07 12:31