Here’s the skinny:
- Bitcoin and the euro are basically flexing on the U.S. dollar, even though the U.S. stock market decided to throw a tantrum. 🙄
- This dollar drama is part of a big “let’s ghost U.S. assets” party, probably stirred up by Uncle Sam’s policy mood swings. 🥳
So, picture this: Bitcoin (BTC) and the euro-dollar (EUR/USD) options walk into a bar and start acting all bullish despite the U.S. stock market having a face-plant moment. Sounds like someone’s switched the “sell America” dial from snooze to full-on hype.
Right now, bitcoin’s short- and near-dated risk reversals — fancy finance speak for “how many people want to bet it’ll go up versus down” — are tipping positive, which means the crowd’s quietly confident. The data, straight from the financial gossip hubs like Deribit and Amberdata, shows BTC recovering from its previous “let’s just put on those puts” funk.
Meanwhile, the ever-romantic EUR/USD risk reversal has also flipped its script, showing euro call options are having a moment. Jens Nordvig, the data whisperer CEO of Exante Data Inc, is keeping a close eye on this flirtation.
If you’re wondering: a call option is like saying “I want in if this thing rockets,” while a put option is more of a “better safe than sorry” kind of vibe. So a call buyer is basically the eternal optimist, and a put buyer is the world’s biggest skeptic.
What’s wild? Folks are favoring calls on Bitcoin and the euro over the dollar like it’s the hottest new club in town. Basically, investors are skipping out on the U.S. dollar and cozying up to bitcoin, the euro, and gold — because nothing says “I’m ready for chaos” quite like shiny metals and crypto. 💰✨
Monday’s highlight reel: The Dow Jones took a nosedive of over 700 points (yes, you read that right), dragging its monthly slump to over 9%. The dollar index, measuring the greenback’s cool factor against other big currencies, has hit a sulky three-year low at 98 — down 10% over three months. Treasury note prices are also on the slide, which means long-term yields are getting a pep talk, rising past 4.90%.
This U.S. sell-off isn’t random. It’s all tangled up in the mess of President Trump’s trade war saga, his rumored plans to boot Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and the general “Hold my beer” vibe in policy circles. 🍿
Jens Nordvig tweeted (because of course he did): “We’re seeing a STRATEGIC asset allocation shift flipping everything upside down. Investors might wanna pause and actually think rather than just nod along.” Solid advice.
By Monday evening, BTC had sashayed past $88,000, the EUR/USD hit a flirty 1.1575 (fancier than it’s been since 2021), and gold, bless its shiny heart, smashed through $3,400 per ounce hitting $3,495 — a sparkling all-time high. Meanwhile, the dollar’s probably sulking in the corner with a cup of tea.
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2025-04-22 10:27