Why Sinners Could Be About to Break a 34-Year Horror Record (& The 1 Thing That Might Stop It)

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In 1992, The Silence of the Lambs became the first horror film to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, celebrating movies from 1991. It was a huge night for the film, winning in all five major categories – Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay. Over the last 34 years, while a few horror films have received Academy Award recognition – like Get Out, which won Best Original Screenplay – none have gone on to win Best Picture. That might change at the upcoming 98th Academy Awards on March 15th.

Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is a serious contender for Best Picture – it’s not just a nomination to fill a quota for popular genre films. In fact, Sinners is considered one of the favorites to win, which would be a major victory for horror, a genre that hasn’t taken home the award in decades. While it would be fantastic to see Sinners win, another film is currently seen as having a slightly better chance.

One Battle After Another Is the Favorite to Win Best Picture

Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, One Battle After Another, received rave reviews when it was released last fall and is now considered the frontrunner for major awards this season. It has already won several key prizes – Best Film at the BAFTA Awards, and top honors from both the Directors Guild and Producers Guild. These wins are significant because the Academy voters are film industry professionals, indicating strong support within the industry. While Anderson won an award for Adapted Screenplay, another film, Sinners, won for Original Screenplay, effectively balancing out the competition in that category. The real story is the Directors Guild and Producers Guild wins, which highlight One Battle After Another‘s momentum.

Since 1989, the Producers Guild Awards (PGA Awards) have often foreshadowed the winner of the Best Picture Oscar. Over the past 36 years, the film that won the PGA Award has gone on to win the Oscar 26 times. While there have been some exceptions – three in the last decade, including 2019 when 1917 won the PGA Award but Parasite won the Oscar – the PGA Awards remain a remarkably reliable indicator. With its recent wins at both the PGA and Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards, One Battle After Another has significantly increased its chances of winning Best Picture, giving it an advantage over Sinners.

It feels like we’re in a period where one movie dominates awards season, consistently winning prizes leading up to the Oscars. In fact, four out of the last five Best Picture winners – including the most recent three (Anora, Oppenheimer, and Everything Everywhere All at Once) – first won at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) awards, making them the clear frontrunners. The only exception was CODA, which won at PGA but didn’t receive a DGA nomination. This means One Battle After Another is currently in a very strong position to win Best Picture, and there’s another factor to keep in mind.

Paul Thomas Anderson is a cinematic legend, and it’s honestly about time the Academy recognized that. He’s been nominated for 11 Oscars without a win, and with a film like One Battle After Another, I think he finally has a real shot. He’s directed so many modern classics – Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, the list goes on – and Oscar voters often love to honor a veteran filmmaker with a lifetime of incredible work. We saw it happen with Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer, and I think One Battle After Another could be Anderson’s moment – a win not just for the film itself, but for his entire, brilliant career.

Can Sinners Upset One Battle After Another for Best Picture?

While Sinners didn’t win at the Directors Guild and Producers Guild Awards, it’s performed strongly in other awards leading up to the Oscars. Along with Ryan Coogler’s win at the Writers Guild Awards, Sinners was the major winner at the Actor Awards (previously known as the SAG Awards), taking home the top prize for Outstanding Performance by a Cast – essentially their version of Best Picture. Perhaps even more surprisingly, Michael B. Jordan won Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, making him a serious contender for the Best Actor Oscar.

The success of Sinners with the acting community is encouraging, especially since actors make up the largest voting group in the Academy. While the voters for these awards and the Oscars are different, a strong showing here definitely boosts Sinners‘ chances. Although the Actor Awards aren’t as predictive as the Producers Guild Awards, a significant number – 15 out of the last 30 – of winning ensembles have gone on to win Best Picture, giving Sinners a roughly 50% chance at the top prize. Looking at recent Best Picture winners, it’s also noteworthy that four out of the last five featured a lead actor who won an Oscar – CODA being the exception, though it did win for Best Supporting Actor. If Jordan becomes the frontrunner for Best Actor, it would significantly improve Sinners‘ overall prospects.

Even before the awards season officially began, Sinners was a major contender. It received a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, demonstrating broad support throughout the film industry – not just from the actors involved. This widespread appeal will likely benefit Sinners in the Best Picture voting process. The Academy uses a preferential ballot where members rank the nominees, meaning votes for second and third choices become important after some films are eliminated. Because Sinners is so well-liked, it’s expected to receive a large number of these secondary votes, potentially influencing the final outcome.

While Sinners is highly favored, One Battle After Another is a very strong contender – it’s earned 13 nominations and already won at the PGA Awards. It’s expected to receive a lot of votes as a second or third choice, and could even win Best Picture if it gets enough first-place votes. Although the voting members for the PGA and Academy Awards are different, One Battle After Another currently has good chances. Even if Sinners doesn’t win Best Picture, Ryan Coogler is likely to win an Oscar for his screenplay, which would be a fantastic achievement.

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2026-03-10 22:42