As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I’ve seen my fair share of bull runs and market corrections. The current Bitcoin (BTC) surge to $98,000 is undeniably impressive, but it leaves me with a sense of déjà vu.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $98,000 for the initial time ever as news circulated about potential plans by President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to establish a special role within the White House for managing cryptocurrency policy.
On November 21st, Bitcoin’s price significantly increased by more than 4.50%, setting a new record high at $98,367 (as per Bitstamp). This surge in value caused the total crypto market capitalization to jump by 3.65%, allowing it to surpass the $3.17 trillion threshold.
By the end of 2024, the excitement surrounding the “Trump Trade” could potentially drive Bitcoin’s price to its long-awaited $100,000 mark. As per data from betting platform Polymarket, a whopping 92% of bets are currently placed in favor of Bitcoin reaching a new high of six figures.
Meanwhile, the calls for even higher Bitcoin prices in 2025 are growing.
BTC price could hit $200,000 by 2025: Bernstein Research
According to analysts from Bernstein, they forecasted in their October report, “The Black Book,” that the price of Bitcoin might reach a staggering $200,000 before the year 2025 concludes.
Their bullish prediction stems from rising institutional demand, positive regulatory shifts, and pro-crypto appointments by Donald Trump.
A possible factor contributing to Bitcoin’s potential increase could be the suggested creation of a country-level Bitcoin reserve.
Significantly, Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a draft bill suggesting an investment in up to 5% of all existing Bitcoins over the course of the next five years, potentially amounting to over $100 billion.
Furthermore, Bernstein highlights an increasing interest in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and substantial investment plans by firms such as MicroStrategy, aiming to secure $42 billion for Bitcoin purchases within the next three years.
Bitcoin’s regression model predicts $150,000 top this bull cycle
It’s possible that by 2025, Bitcoin might reach approximately $150,000, according to predictions made using the Logarithmic Regression Model and considering Bitcoin’s past behavior following halvings.
Previous Bitcoin halvings have historically led to significant price surges: a staggering 8,000% increase following the 2012 event, a 2,900% rise post-2016, and a 560% hike in the aftermath of the 2020 halving.
If the trend continues in a similar fashion, it could lead to an increase of approximately 300-400% by the time of the April 2024 halving event. This growth would correspond with the highest range ($150,000) predicted by our regression model.
As a pro-cryptocurrency government could bring regulatory certainty and more institutions embracing cryptocurrencies, it seems likely that Bitcoin will follow its traditional trend in the year 2025.
2021 Bitcoin chart fractal hints at correction after $100K
Approaching with a degree of caution, it seems Bitcoin is showing signs of a bearish divergence much like its movement in 2021, leading some to worry that the current upward trend might reach $100,000 before a notable downturn occurs.
In the year 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000; however, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a bearish trend, indicating higher prices accompanied by a decrease in the RSI value.
Prior to this, a significant 77% fall in Bitcoin’s value occurred, reaching its 50-week moving average (EMA) as it declined.
In a somewhat familiar pattern, Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering around $97,500, and its Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that its momentum might be starting to slow down.
Should history follow a similar pattern as before, the ongoing Bitcoin bull run might peak near the psychologically strong price point of $100,000. Subsequently, a period of correction could take place. A possible interim goal for such a downturn would be the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), estimated to be around $60,000. This implies that a potential correction of more than 40% might occur in the year 2025.
It’s worth noting that the price point of $60,000 coincides with a significant rising trendline which has functioned as a support for Bitcoin during its latest bull market.
Based on past trends, a test of this line might force out uncertain traders, creating opportunities for robust buying at reduced costs. This potential downturn and subsequent recovery may aim to reach the symbolic $100,000 mark once more before the year 2025 concludes.
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2024-11-21 17:08