Windows 10’s ESU program could be a goldmine for Microsoft — pulling $7.3 billion from holdouts with this paid cutoff lifeline

In about a month, Microsoft plans to discontinue support for Windows 10, but it seems that most users are resistant to this change. This is because either their devices do not meet the stringent system requirements for upgrading to Windows 11, or they are hesitant due to perceived design flaws in the new operating system.

A consumer advocacy organization (PIRG) submitted a plea urging Microsoft to rethink their plan to discontinue Windows 10. Although the company remained firm about ending support after October 14, 2025, they have granted a temporary reprieve for users via their Extended Security Updates (ESU) scheme, extending support for another year.

For individuals using Windows 10, opting into the subscription plan will cost $30 and allows usage on as many as ten devices. On the other hand, you can link your PC settings to the cloud through a Microsoft account or utilize 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points to enroll in the program at no charge.

With the approaching expiration date of Windows 10, a sense of unease has escalated among its users. Many have expressed frustration on social media platforms about their inability to enroll in the program. Yet, Microsoft clarified that the program access is being distributed progressively to users, suggesting that it will be accessible for all prior to Windows 10’s end-of-support phase.

The Restart Project, known for its role in creating the End of 10 Toolkit to aid Windows 10 users unable to upgrade to Windows 11 with useful tips for adaptation, has openly voiced their disapproval towards Microsoft’s ESU (Extended Security Updates) program. They feel that it resembles a late alarm, providing merely temporary relief, like a band-aid, for a system that’s already in distress.

Microsoft’s latest updates may not provide significant improvements for approximately 400 million Windows 10 computers that are currently unable to upgrade to Windows 11, as the new options might fall short in addressing this issue extensively.

The Restart Project

This news follows HP and Dell announcing that currently, half of all PCs are running Windows 10 and will continue to do so past Microsoft’s cutoff date. The computer manufacturers also projected that many users will prefer Microsoft’s Extended Security Update (ESU) program for ongoing system support as they aim to migrate to Windows 11 by 2026.

In various places, several users suggest that Microsoft’s decision to end support for Windows 10 resembles a strategic move aimed at boosting sales of Copilot+ PC and encouraging upgrades to Windows 11. This implies that they believe the end-of-support is not just a natural progression but a tactic to drive more sales in related products.

Microsoft will make a killing from Windows 10’s ESU program

According to the opinions expressed by numerous users, the discontinuation of support for Windows 10 by Microsoft does not force them to transition to Windows 11. Instead, they seem to favor Microsoft’s Extended Security Updates (ESU) program over upgrading to the new operating system.

Companies opting to continue using Windows 10 past Microsoft’s deadlines will need to pay $61 per device for extended support. This fee will increase by a factor of two for each successive year you choose to enroll in this program.

According to a detailed analysis by Nexthink, Microsoft stands to earn approximately $7.3 billion solely from its Enterprise Software Upgrade (ESU) plan if only corporate clients are considered.

In my study, I based the data on the hypothesis that by October 14, 2025, the number of Windows 10 customer endpoints would decrease by 33%, mirroring a similar trend observed between May 19th and August 1st. Consequently, I projected that as many as 121 million PCs will continue to operate on Windows 10 even after Microsoft’s deadline.

Last month, Microsoft disclosed that approximately 1.4 billion personal computers worldwide use the Windows operating system. Nexthink estimates that around a third of these Windows devices are managed by government organizations or businesses, which amounts to about 420 million devices. This means that these entities could potentially incur an estimated $7.3 billion in Extended Support Updates (ESU) costs.

According to Tim Flower, the digital employee experience strategist at Nexthink, transitioning to Windows 11 “shouldn’t cause a disturbance.” He emphasized that:

The aim should be to leverage this occasion as a means to enhance daily workflows of employees. This involves assessing the functionality of devices and applications prior to migration, predicting potential issues, and taking measures to guarantee seamless migrations and updates. The ultimate objective is to prevent IT events from disrupting productivity and enable organizations to realize tangible advantages stemming from their investment.

It appears that Microsoft does not plan to extend the deadline for ending support for Windows 10. Should you decide to continue using Windows 10 after this date, you can consider enrolling in Microsoft’s Extended Security Update (ESU) program, which provides ongoing security updates but comes at a cost. Alternatively, you may choose not to take any action, potentially leaving your system vulnerable to malware. Lastly, upgrading to Windows 11 might be an option if your device meets the requirements. Please feel free to share your thoughts on this matter in the comments below.

Read More

2025-09-05 14:10