Windows is 40 years old today — but its future has never been less certain

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Today marks the 40th anniversary of Windows! Microsoft first launched Windows 1.0 on November 20, 1985, as a way to add a visual interface to the MS-DOS operating system. Now, four decades later, Windows powers more than 1.4 billion devices worldwide and remains the go-to desktop operating system for most people when they think of a personal computer.

Windows versions like 95, XP, 7, and 10 are fondly remembered and have become iconic parts of pop culture. Many people consider these to be the best versions of Windows, and those who grew up with them in the 90s and 2000s have particularly strong memories.

Throughout my research, it’s become clear Windows hasn’t always had smooth sailing. There have been periods of controversy – from legal battles concerning pre-installed software, to releases plagued with bugs and some user interface changes that weren’t well-received. Despite all of that, though, Windows has proven remarkably resilient and remains the go-to operating system for a lot of people.

Microsoft began with Windows 1.0 in 1985, but it wasn’t until Windows 95 that they truly mastered user interface design and features. Even 30 years later, today’s version of Windows still incorporates many of the design elements first introduced in Windows 95 – things like the Start menu, Taskbar, window controls, and how files are managed.

It’s surprising how little Windows has fundamentally changed over the years. While the appearance is more modern with smoother animations and sounds, the basic way it works is still the same. Even the desktop experience – customizing your wallpaper and arranging icons – hasn’t seen significant updates since 1995.

Windows 8 was a pivotal moment

Microsoft’s attempt to significantly redesign Windows with Windows 8 didn’t go well. Customers strongly disliked the changes, and within a few years, Microsoft largely went back to the original design. Windows 8 is remembered as the version that tried something new but ultimately failed to gain acceptance.

Windows hasn’t felt the same since then, though its basic operation hasn’t changed. It’s more about how it’s positioned in the tech world. It seems the platform hasn’t pushed for significant new features, likely because a previous attempt failed so badly that it’s now hesitant to take risks. Windows 10 did explore some ambitious ideas, like OneCore and the idea of a single operating system for phones, computers, and Xbox consoles.

Ultimately, the ambitious ideas behind Windows 10 never fully materialized. It became just another standard desktop operating system, lacking significant innovation in its design or how users interact with it. Despite changes in technology and new types of devices, Windows remains fundamentally the same as it always has been.

Over the past ten years, Windows usage has steadily decreased. Increasingly, people are turning to other operating systems, and this trend starts young. Many students are now using Chromebooks or iPads in school instead of Windows, meaning they don’t develop the same familiarity with it and are less likely to choose it later in life.

It’s not just kids who are curious about Macs. Many adults who grew up using Windows have also been considering a switch, especially after the problems with Windows 8. We saw a big jump in people switching to Mac in the early to mid-2010s, and again when Apple released the M1 Mac in 2020.

This is a major issue for Windows. Over the years, it’s gained a reputation for not being as good as Mac. Apple’s new technology really highlighted a problem: Windows hadn’t seen significant improvements in a long time.

Over the past ten years, Microsoft’s approach with Windows has often felt like a reaction to what Apple is doing. Windows 10 was developed partly in response to the unified system Apple created for iPads and iPhones, and the new Copilot+ PCs seem to be a direct answer to Apple’s Silicon chips. It appears Microsoft isn’t leading the way in innovation as much as it used to.

The company has seen some successes, most notably with the Surface Pro. This device has significantly impacted the tech market, pushing competitors like Apple to rethink their products and how they’re designed. Today’s iPad Pro is heavily influenced by the Surface Pro, and Apple is even updating iPadOS to function more like the operating system on a Windows 2-in-1 device.

Windows hasn’t evolved much as a software product, which is holding Microsoft back. They don’t seem interested in adapting Windows for devices that aren’t traditional PCs, and I’m concerned this will eventually limit the platform’s long-term viability.

The wrong path?

I briefly felt optimistic about the future of Windows in 2019, with the announcement of Windows 10X and the Surface Neo. It was the last time Windows really felt innovative. It promised a completely updated version of the operating system, built on a modern foundation with a redesigned user experience, and it was going to debut on the brand-new Surface Neo device.

That initial excitement didn’t last long – within a year, the whole idea was scrapped. Honestly, that’s when I started losing interest in Windows. Seeing Microsoft decide to simply build on the existing Windows 10 foundation, rather than create something truly new, made me completely lose hope.

The release of Windows 11 didn’t offer any truly groundbreaking changes. While it introduced a redesigned Start menu and some productivity improvements, it largely builds upon Windows 10, which itself was an evolution of Windows 7. This approach follows the lessons learned from Windows 8, which attempted a radical departure and wasn’t well-received. Windows 11 doesn’t try to innovate significantly or explore possibilities for different types of devices.

Wearable technology, like smartwatches and glasses, is becoming increasingly popular, but Windows isn‘t involved. This mirrors what happened with smartphones, which Microsoft stopped supporting years ago. Currently, Windows only works on traditional computers, and that could be a problem if computers eventually become outdated.

Now AI is risking everything

Artificial intelligence is rapidly developing, and dedicated AI-powered devices are sure to emerge. These devices – small enough to carry in your pocket or wear as a necklace – will have their own operating systems designed for AI tasks. Windows, as we know it, isn’t likely to be a part of this new landscape. If a compelling alternative to the traditional PC appears, Windows faces a serious threat.

Windows 11 is a solid operating system, even though it hasn’t been universally embraced. Recently, it’s faced criticism for prioritizing artificial intelligence over core improvements – things like reducing unnecessary software, preventing the platform from becoming less user-friendly over time, and fixing bugs. While Windows 11 definitely has its issues, I still believe it’s the best version of Windows Microsoft has released so far.

It seems like many people consider Windows 11 to be a disappointing update, similar to how Windows 8 was received. There’s a pattern where some Windows versions – like XP, 7, and 10 – are well-liked, while others – including ME, Vista, 8, and now 11 – get a bad reputation. While I don’t necessarily agree with this categorization, it’s a common perception.

The news comes at a difficult time, as Microsoft recently revealed plans to transform Windows 11 into an AI-powered operating system focused on boosting productivity. While this new direction has faced significant criticism, Microsoft appears determined to move forward with it.

Recent changes have probably hurt how people view Windows lately. I expect Microsoft will release “Windows 12” within the next two years to fix some of the problems users have with Windows 11, although I think artificial intelligence will continue to be a key feature.

AI has great potential, but it needs to be implemented thoughtfully. Microsoft’s current approach, trying to integrate it into everything, risks repeating the mistakes of the Windows 8 launch. If they proceed with more caution, AI could be successful, but right now, they’re pushing it too hard and frustrating users.

It makes me question whether Windows will still be around in 40 years. If artificial intelligence fundamentally changes what a computer is, and Microsoft doesn’t create a compelling AI-powered experience, then I doubt it will. Windows will probably remain important for businesses, and I can imagine it becoming a cloud-based operating system primarily for those users. However, I think Windows could become outdated for everyday consumers, due to its older technology and difficulty adapting to new trends.

Windows no longer has a guaranteed hold on PC gaming. Companies like Valve, with their SteamOS, are building their own gaming platform, and it’s likely more game developers will start supporting it soon. Plus, solutions to common cheating problems are also on the horizon.

Shoehorning AI into a legacy platform isn’t innovation

If Microsoft wants Windows to still be relevant in 40 years, it needs to reinvent itself as a platform for innovation. This means updating the system, removing outdated code that’s slowing it down, improving performance on less powerful computers, and making Windows Update faster and more reliable. Essentially, Windows needs to be simpler and more efficient to compete with newer operating systems like iPadOS, Chrome OS, and Android.

We should also explore innovative approaches to computing. The current user interface hasn’t changed significantly since 1995, and while it’s important to maintain that familiar experience for existing users, it’s time to experiment with something new. Artificial intelligence offers a great opportunity for this, but it needs to work seamlessly in the background. AI is most effective when it’s unobtrusive, and Microsoft should prioritize that principle.

It’s perfectly fine for some people to stick with the current Windows, while others might want to explore new possibilities. If Microsoft truly wants to create an AI-powered operating system, they should develop it as a separate product. They can continue supporting the existing Windows for those who prefer it, and simultaneously build a completely new, innovative version of Windows focused entirely on AI.

If AI really is useful like Microsoft insists it is, people will flock to it.

Happy birthday, Windows! I’m excited to see what the next decade brings for you, and I hope you continue to be a popular choice for users for many years to come.

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2025-11-20 18:41