Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the end of April with uncertainty, as the cryptocurrency’s price dips to its lowest point in the past ten days.
The leading cryptocurrency hovers around major resistance points following a week of continuous selling during regular stock market sessions.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been facing some challenges this month due to the heightened macroeconomic instability and geopolitical tensions. These unfavorable conditions have made it difficult for Bitcoin bulls like myself to navigate the market. However, we remain hopeful that we can turn things around and capitalize on potential opportunities that may arise from these circumstances.
The April candle close has just days left to avoid becoming Bitcoin’s worst month of 2024 so far.
In simpler terms, the current market situation is challenging as there’s significant seller interest preventing the price from reaching new heights between its current level and the all-time high. Despite being relatively close to those levels at around $12,000 away, they currently seem unattainable.
As a crypto investor, I’m keeping a close eye on potential areas of support for my investments. If downside pressure continues, these will be crucial points where the market may find footing and potentially reverse course.
Opinionated optimists believe that Bitcoin’s current price fluctuations against the US Dollar, represented as BTC/USD, are simply part of an extended period of sideways movement. They anticipate that this range will eventually give way to a continuation of the robust bull market witnessed during the first quarter.
This week, the return of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong could be bolstered by a sense of familiarity, as it’s only been about three and a half months since the United States introduced similar products.
In their weekly report, CryptoMoon explores these significant themes, among others, providing insights on Bitcoin’s price movements.
Bitcoin risks worst month since November 2022
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I observed that the weekly close brought minimal relief for weary Bitcoin traders as the value of Bitcoin against the US dollar persisted in its downward trend during the Asian trading sessions.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the Bitcoin-USD pair on Bitstamp reached its lowest point at $61,943, according to data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView. This is the pair’s lowest level since April 19.
In the past week, the price of relief bouncing near $65,000 faced persistent selling pressure as markets opened on Wall Street. Analysts like well-known trader Skew identified this trend, linking it to automated trading systems based in the United States.
In his latest analysis on X, published on April 29th, he expressed the view that there could be a prolonged period of sideways trading between $67,000 and $58,000 before a significant breakout occurs with sufficient volume support.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that bears have repeatedly attempted to push the market down below the $60,000 mark, but they haven’t been successful in holding it there for an extended period. Currently, we’re hovering around $62,000, and based on recent trends, it seems that April could result in losses of more than 12%.
Based on data from the monitoring resource CoinGlass, this month marks Bitcoin’s poorest performance since November 2022, which was during the peak of the recent bear market.
Regardless of where it concludes, the monthly close will emerge as a significant new focal point for Bitcoin (BTC) pricing.
He mentioned that 1 million in dollars is approximately reachable within two days, after which the monthly and weekly open levels will become crucial indicators. Regarding the one-month timeframes, he considered them to be quite acceptable. Moreover, he emphasized the importance of $58,000 as a critical support level.
Dramatic yen volatility greets FOMC week
Major economic occurrences continue to unfold this week, including the upcoming interest rate announcement from the US Federal Reserve.
Although markets are prepared for no new developments following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there have been worrying signs in recent economic data releases for investors in risk assets. There’s a growing belief that interest rates may not decrease as soon as initially projected at the beginning of the year, based on predictions from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
As an analyst, I would express it this way: “A significant week lies before us in the trading world, according to The Kobeissi Letter’s latest weekly macro outlook posted on X.”
“After a month full of hot inflation data, we will finally get the Fed’s updated views.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) isn’t the only significant event this week. On May 1, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide additional insights. Then, we have jobless claims data on May 2 and unemployment figures on May 3.
If the economy takes a turn for the worse, then things could get tougher for Bitcoin and risk assets. However, if economic conditions remain stable or improve, these assets may continue to perform well.
In the bleakest possible outcome, there could be a string of disappointing performances for risk assets, which might ultimately result in signs of economic instability or even collapse. (Skew’s explanation paraphrased)
“Probably see sweep of $50K – $46K area. Don’t see that happening till there’s HTF close below $58K & narrative for a breakdown.”
This week, several indicators of stress have emerged in the United States and Japan. In America, a regional bank succumbed to failure for the first time, while Japan experienced dramatic fluctuations in its currency value against the dollar. The yen reached its lowest point relative to the greenback since 1990, dipping below the 160 mark before bouncing back.
Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs due for launch
Sticking in Asia, the coming week marks a seminal moment in Bitcoin institutional adoption.
As a crypto investor, I’m excited to share that similar to the United States in January, Hong Kong is on the verge of approving spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). The buzz surrounding this development is palpable, with many investors and market observers expecting a wave of copycat applications and potential price surges once the first Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF hits the markets.
According to a report published by crypto exchange Huobi in 2022, Willy Woo, the founder of Woobull – an on-chain analytics platform, emphasized the potential significant interest in spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
“The number of users in the Asian market surpasses that of both the US and European markets when combined.”
As a blockchain analyst at House of Chimera, I’ve prepared an initial assessment for our upcoming report. Based on data from crypto financial services provider Matrixport, we anticipate potential inflows in the market to reach approximately $25 billion.
As an analyst, I would interpret this statement as follows: “My analysis indicates that a significant increase in Bitcoin’s capital could result in improved market liquidity, potentially contributing to more stable Bitcoin prices.”
“It also sets a precedent for other Asian markets, potentially influencing further regulatory adjustments in favor of crypto.”
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve come across an intriguing observation made by House of Chimera. They pointed out that investor participation from mainland China, a significant player in the global financial landscape, could be limited due to regulatory barriers. Despite China’s past attempts to suppress crypto activity, this potential shift could have far-reaching implications for the market as a whole.
As a crypto investor, I believe that the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong marks an important milestone. However, the extent of its influence on the larger market hinges significantly on various elements. Regulatory frameworks will play a crucial role in determining its success. Favorable regulations can attract more institutional investors and boost confidence in the market.
Key BTC price support lines ready for retest
As I delve into the latest developments of Bitcoin’s price movements, it’s important to note that we’re nearing critical support points, including the significant levels at $60,000 and $58,000. Among these potential lines of defense for the cryptocurrency, one trendline is starting to capture my attention as a clear demarcation point.
According to CryptoMoon’s latest report, the average cost at which short-term Bitcoin holders acquired their cryptocurrency is now a topic of analysis for market observers.
This group of investors represents entities that have owned Bitcoin for no more than 155 days. In simpler terms, they fall into the category of investors with a short-term holding period, typically characterized as speculators in the Bitcoin market.
The price of STH, which currently hovers around $59,700, is an important benchmark to keep an eye on. Over the course of the market recovery from the 2022 bear market lows, this level has served as a support. There was a brief interruption in September 2021 when it failed to uphold this role, but otherwise, it has remained significant.
“Can it serve as a reliable prop this occasion, according to Philip Swift, the founder of Look Into Bitcoin?”
As an analyst, I would rephrase it as follows: I notice that two mid-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which form what is commonly referred to as the “bull market support band,” are currently aligning themselves. These averages could potentially serve as a buffer and mitigate any significant price declines in case of a deeper market correction.
“I’ve noticed that as prices continue to consolidate, the underlying bull market support is starting to catch up. This means that even though we may see some short-term volatility or sideways movement, the overall trend remains bullish.”
“This should offer good support if we were to touch it. Back in 2021 when we broke the 2017 all time high, we ended up not needing it but took off before the band could catch up.”
Retail investors circle back to Bitcoin
Smaller retail investors are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin, even as its price remains sluggish.
According to Checkmate, the anonymous on-chain expert at Glassnode, there’s a trend of smaller Bitcoin wallets boosting their holdings.
He drew information from his own platform, Checkonchain, indicating a change in 30-day rolling wallet balances, turning positive on April 8 for the initial time since mid-January.
As a crypto investor observing the market, I’ve noticed that those holding Bitcoins for retail purposes seem to be buying more “sats” (Bitcoin satoshis) once again. Despite their reputation for selling at the slightest correction, they appear to be accumulating Bitcoin once more.
“Shrimp (<1 $BTC) are accumulating 12.2k $BTC per month as it stands.”
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2024-04-29 12:55