XRP bulls in ‘denial’ as price trend mirrors previous 75-90% crashes

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XRP: The Price is a Lie, But the Denial is Real 😂

XRP bulls in ‘denial’ as price trend mirrors previous 75-90% crashes

XRP (XRP) has lost more than 40% since hitting a multi-year high near $3.40 in January, and onchain data suggests the downtrend could deepen in the weeks ahead. It’s like a bad joke, really. Up, down, up, down. The price is a merry-go-round, and we’re all just holding on for dear life. 🎠

“Denial” preceding past 75-90% XRP crashes is back

XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode suggests the token may be heading for another extended downturn. Ah, yes, because what’s a few hundred percent loss when you can have a nice cup of denial to wash it down? ☕️

The metric, which gauges the aggregate unrealized gains or losses of XRP holders, has historically served as a reliable barometer of potential trend reversals. In past market cycles, NUPL has peaked in the so-called “euphoria” zone just before major price tops. It’s like a big game of musical chairs, except the chairs are made of dollars and the music is the sound of your wallet crying. 🎶

In 2018, XRP soared above $3.00 as NUPL signaled extreme optimism, only to collapse 90% to below $0.30 as sentiment deteriorated through “denial” and into “capitulation.” Ah, the sweet taste of denial. It’s like a flavor of ice cream that’s only available after you’ve lost all your money. 🍦

A similar pattern played out in 2021 when XRP hit $1.96 before sliding 75% to $0.50 amid a sharp shift from euphoria to fear. It’s like a rollercoaster ride, except the rollercoaster is on fire and you’re stuck on it. 🎢

As of March 2025, XRP’s NUPL has once again entered the “denial” zone, with the price trading around $2.50 following a strong rally. If the pattern holds, XRP could face further downsides akin to the bear markets in 2018 and 2021. Because what’s a little more denial, really? 😏

XRP now faces similar risks, trading sideways between $1.80 and $3.40, following a blistering 585% rally in just two months. It’s like a wild ride, full of twists and turns, except the turns are all down and the ride is on fire. 🎠

The rally accelerated after pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election, while speculation grew around Ripple’s potential victory in its SEC lawsuit and the possible approval of a spot XRP ETF in 2025. Because who needs facts when you have speculation and a good dose of denial? 🤣

As a result of these supportive fundamentals, some traders said XRP’s ongoing consolidation may eventually lead to a breakout. That includes market analyst Stellar Babe, who anticipates XRP’s price to gain 450%. Ah, yes, because a 450% gain is just around the corner, and we’re all just waiting for it. 🤞

Technical fractal suggests XRP is topping out

XRP’s weekly chart suggests a bearish fractal from 2021 may be unfolding again. It’s like a big game of déjà vu, except the outcome is always the same: you lose your money. 😳

In both 2021 and 2025, the XRP price formed a local top while the RSI printed a lower high, signaling bearish divergence and weakening upside momentum. Ah, yes, because a lower high is always a good sign, right? 🤔

Back in 2021, that divergence preceded an 85.50% sell-off that broke below the 50-week (the red wave) and 200-week (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMA) supports. It’s like a big game of dominoes, except the dominoes are all down and the game is over. 🎲

In 2025, XRP has again shown a similar RSI divergence, followed by a 40%-plus decline from its recent highs. It now risks an extended decline toward the 50-week EMA at around $1.58, down about 21.6% from the current price levels by June. Because what’s a little more denial, really? 😏

If the correction deepens and breaks below the 50-week EMA support, history suggests XRP could slide further toward the 200-week EMA around $0.87, or about 60% from the current price levels. Ah, yes, because 60% is just a small price to pay for a good dose of denial. 🤑

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2025-03-31 16:52