Key takeaways:
- Binance XRP reserves at 2.76B – elevated and holding
- Price at $1.39, down from $1.48 weekly high
- Whale-to-exchange transactions collapsed from 38K to 667
- Exchange depositing transactions at 338 – near multi-week floor
- Active addresses at 15K – contracting alongside price
- Reserve divergence historically resolves via price dropping, not reserves clearing
- No organic network demand building beneath current price level
Binance currently holds 2.76 billion XRP, a large and consistent amount that hasn’t changed much. However, the price of XRP has dropped from $1.48 to $1.39 since reaching its high point last week. Historically, when the price and these reserve levels have moved apart, the price has usually adjusted to match the reserves, rather than the reserves being reduced.
Throughout most of 2024 and into early 2025, I observed a strong correlation between XRP reserves and its price. When coins left exchanges, it signaled accumulation, and inflows suggested potential selling pressure – a logical connection that consistently held true. However, that relationship has broken down. The difference we’re now seeing in the Binance data isn’t just a small fluctuation; it’s the most important factor defining XRP’s current market situation.
Whales distributed into the rally, then stopped completely
The price increase of XRP in April can be specifically explained by data from Cryptoquant showing large cryptocurrency holders (whales) sending XRP to the Binance exchange. Around April 11th, these transactions jumped significantly, reaching about 38,000 – one of the highest numbers ever recorded in the available data.
This activity happened right as XRP hit its highest price of the week, around $1.48. At that exact moment, major XRP holders were transferring large amounts of their holdings to Binance for sale, capitalizing on the peak price.
Activity from large cryptocurrency holders (often called “whales”) has significantly decreased. As of April 19th, these holders are sending only 667 transactions to exchanges, down over 98% from a high of around 7,500 on April 11th. The number of transactions moving funds *to* exchanges tells a similar story, currently at 338 after peaking around the same time. This suggests that the biggest players who could drive prices down aren’t currently selling.
Most XRP analysis currently misses a key point: there’s a difference between large holders finishing their sales and actual new buying. When these large holders stop selling, it simply reduces the immediate pressure to lower the price – it doesn’t automatically mean more people are starting to buy.
The network is not growing into this price range
However, looking closely at the blockchain data related to this large transaction reveals a more concerning question: what exactly is causing the temporary halt in supply?
Currently, there are around 15,000 active addresses on the XRP Ledger, which is on the lower side compared to activity throughout most of late March and April. A jump to 31,000 addresses on March 30th was unusual and probably caused by a specific event, not a lasting increase in network users.
What’s particularly noteworthy is what occurred around April 17th: the price hit $1.48 with roughly 19,000 active addresses. While the price increase did draw some interest, it wasn’t substantial enough to indicate a genuine, growing demand. Currently, both the price and the number of active addresses are declining.
This information challenges the idea that recent selling by large cryptocurrency holders simply clears the path for a price increase. A true period of buying, where prices start to rise steadily, usually involves more active users joining *before* the price goes up, not after. We’re not seeing that pattern right now.
The reserve data is where the three previous signals converge
In the past, when Binance has held a large amount of cryptocurrency and the price has dropped, things have usually gone one of two ways: either new buyers stepped in to push the price back up, or the price slowly fell until it stabilized. Currently, we’re not seeing the most positive scenario – where Binance’s holdings decrease as the price increases, which would suggest people are taking control of their own crypto with growing confidence.
A significant amount of XRP is currently held in Binance’s reserves, representing a readily available supply that hasn’t been sold yet. The large token transfers to exchanges that happened in early April are now complete, meaning the coins are in place for potential sales. Whether these large holders (whales) actually sell will depend on the price of XRP. Without a significant increase in active users or other major positive news, there’s little reason to expect the price to rise to a level where holding onto these XRP reserves would be more profitable than selling them.
Based on our analysis, the price appears likely to stabilize around $2, as this is where buying and selling pressures have balanced out in the past. However, reaching that level from its current price of $1.39, with a large number of tokens in circulation (2.76 billion) and relatively few active users (15,000), would require a major change in the overall market or a reduction in the available supply. Currently, we see no indication of either of those things happening, so the existing conditions don’t support a price increase to $2.
XRP isn’t experiencing a continuous price drop. Selling activity has decreased and the initial wave of XRP transfers in April seems to be over. However, the XRP that was moved to Binance earlier in the month remains there, and those holding it are waiting for a better price before selling. Just because things are calm doesn’t mean the situation is improving, and the amount of XRP available to sell hasn’t changed – sellers are simply pausing for now.
This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before making any investment choices, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.
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2026-04-20 20:20