XRP’s ETF Charade: A Farce in Three Acts and a Funeral

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Ah, XRP, the financial world’s answer to a three-legged stool in a hurricane. For the past 24 hours, and indeed the past week, its price has meandered with all the purpose of a drunkard at a garden party. Market indecision, they call it-a phrase as vague as a society hostess’s apology. On the surface, institutional activity appears as supportive as a corset, with XRP spot ETFs boasting three weeks of inflows. But, dear reader, beneath this veneer of prosperity lies a rot as inevitable as a Waugh novel’s unhappy ending.

Technical and on-chain signals whisper-nay, cackle-that XRP teeters on the brink of a breakdown more dramatic than a Bright Young Thing’s nervous collapse.

ETF Inflows: A Positive Facade, But the Paint is Cracking

XRP spot ETFs have indeed recorded inflows for three consecutive weeks, a feat as impressive as a debutante’s first curtsy. The week ending February 6 saw a robust $36.04 million in inflows. Fast forward to February 20, and the figure had dwindled to a mere $1.84 million-a decline of 95%, as precipitous as a socialite’s fall from grace.

ETF inflows, the barometer of institutional confidence, are like a country house party: the more guests arrive, the merrier. But when the carriages start leaving early, one suspects the champagne has gone flat. Falling inflows, even if still positive, signal that institutional conviction is evaporating faster than a gin fizz on a summer afternoon.

This institutional retreat is as visible as a scandal in Mayfair. XRP fell below its weekly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) on February 18 and has clung to it like a social climber to a peerage. VWAP, the darling of the financial elite, represents the average price weighted by volume-a benchmark for the cost basis of the grandees. When the price dips below VWAP, it means institutions are nursing losses, their enthusiasm for further purchases as dampened as a picnic in the rain.

The last time XRP breached its weekly VWAP, it plummeted 26%. History, as they say, has a habit of repeating itself-especially in the financial markets, where memory is as short as a society matron’s temper.

Meanwhile, XRP flirts with a hidden bearish divergence between February 6 and February 20. The price prints a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) insists on a higher high-a discordance as jarring as a jazz band at a symphony. RSI, the measure of momentum, suggests that while enthusiasm wanes, the price stubbornly refuses to follow suit. A downtrend looms, as inevitable as the dawn after a night of debauchery.

Weakening ETF inflows, VWAP loss, and bearish divergence paint a picture of institutional strength fading like a watercolor in the rain.

Exchange Flows and Dip Buyers: The Last Gasp of a Dying Party

Despite its fall from VWAP grace, XRP has not collapsed as spectacularly as a soufflé in a draft. On-chain data offers a clue, as reliable as a gossip columnist’s sources.

Exchange Net Position Change, the metric tracking coin movements, reveals a decline in outflows from 71.32 million XRP to 41.69 million XRP-a 41% drop. Buying pressure, once as robust as a country squire’s appetite, has weakened, though it lingers like a guest who overstays their welcome.

The Money Flow Index (MFI), that arbiter of capital inflows, tells a similar tale. Between February 6 and February 19, as the XRP price trended lower, MFI trended higher-a divergence as clear as a glass of claret. Dip buyers, those indefatigable optimists, are accumulating even as the price weakens, their faith as unshakable as a vicar’s conviction.

This dip buying has prevented an immediate collapse, like a well-timed intervention at a disastrous dinner party. But such support is as fleeting as a summer romance. Should dip buying wane, the downside risk could escalate with the speed of a scandal spreading through the drawing rooms of London.

XRP’s Last Stand: $1.25, or the Financial Waterloo

Cost basis data reveals XRP approaching a critical support zone, as significant as a duke’s inheritance. Near $1.26 lies a cluster hosting over 159 million XRP-a level where holders have staked their fortunes. Should this level hold, XRP might avoid a crash deeper than a society belle’s cleavage. But should it falter, selling pressure could accelerate with the force of a jilted lover’s rage.

The next major downside levels lurk near $1.162 and $1.024, as ominous as a cloud on a wedding day. On the upside, XRP must reclaim $1.439, with stronger recovery requiring moves above $1.476 and $1.549. Only a breakout above $1.670 would sever the bearish momentum, as cleanly as a divorce settlement.

For now, XRP remains trapped between weakening institutional support and the stubborn optimism of dip buyers. ETF inflows, though positive, are dwindling like the last drops of port at a long dinner. Technical and on-chain signals point to $1.259 as the decisive level-a financial Rubicon that will determine XRP’s fate, should the bearish divergence and VWAP weakness persist.

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2026-02-21 20:27