You Won’t Believe What Happens When Tariffs Meet Bitcoin! šŸ˜‚šŸ’°

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  • Bitcoin‘s Short-Term Holders (STHs) are sweating bulletsā€”macro uncertainty does wonders for market jitters!
  • Is it game over if BTC slips below $72k? Time for the STHs to grab their fainting couches!

Ah, the 9th of April. A date etched in the chronicles of cryptocurrency history, as the U.S. President (letā€™s not mention namesā€”*cough* Donald *cough*) declared a 90-day tariff holiday. This delightful announcement sent Bitcoin soaring ā˜ļø, a staggering 8.27% leap in a single day! Yes, folks, its longest green candlestick in almost a monthā€”a veritable fiesta of hope and excitement! šŸŽ‰

But the fun didnā€™t stop there! Just a day later, the core CPI inflation number nosedived below 3% for the first time since March 2021. Cue another applause for our dear Bitcoin, which promptly jumped another 3.36% to reach the dizzying heights of $82,532 at press time. šŸŽˆ Such joy!

With these macro nudges, one could imagine the market taking a deep breath, ready to plunge forward. But wait, thereā€™s a twist in our tale!

Our friends, the Short-Term Holders (STHs), are clutching their wallets tightly as their realized price per BTC hangs awkwardly at $93k. Remember kids, when the going gets tough, the tough get goingā€¦ or do they?

Bitcoinā€™s STH supplyā€”where capitulation risks run wild!

We find ourselves at a critical crossroads in Bitcoin’s saga. The STH supply has been jostled awakeā€”on the 10th of February, it peaked at a luscious 400k BTC, but lo and behold, it has sunk to 360k. A sign of mass exodus? The dramatic irony is delicious, isnā€™t it?

On-chain intel from our ever-reliable Glassnode whispered that most of these holdings were acquired aroundā€”hold onto your seatsā€”$93k. But alas, trading below this price means approximately 360k BTC are drowning in unrealized losses, and the risk of capitulation dangles ominously like a piƱata at a birthday party.

Furthermore, the reality of the STH realized price looms large at $131k and $72k. If Bitcoin takes a tumble to the lower band at $72k, it would mean our short-term comrades would suffer a 22% erosion of their much-coveted profit margins. Such delightful chaosā€”historically, when the lower band is breached, itā€™s like watching dominos fall in slow motion!

Should Bitcoin slip beneath the fated $72k, wave goodbye to calm watersā€”cascading sell pressure would arrive like an uninvited guest at dinner! šŸ·

On the bright side, if Bitcoin manages to reclaim $93k, it could flip the STHs back into profit territory, a miracle worthy of the front page of the Daily Celebrator.

Macro volatility: The party crasher!

Observing from a macro lens, Bitcoin is languishing below the all-important $85k resistance level. Every rejection acts as a reminder that this zone teeters on the brink, and a breach could unleash a veritable cataclysm of short liquidations. What a scene that would be! šŸ„³

As if on cue, Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has slipped below its early March benchmarkā€”observe the traders, tiptoeing cautiously away from high-leverage positions, like kids escaping an awkward conversation.

Despite these trials, Bitcoin has shown some grit. Post-tariff fiasco, the BTC market cap only bled a modest $90 billionā€”nothing compared to other, more dramatic risk assets. By comparison, thatā€™s like losing a dollar in the couch versus your entire wallet. šŸ˜…

However, with the Federal Reserve doing its best impression of a stubborn mule, short-term holders may soon feel the urge to cut their losses. Many joined the party around that oh-so-lovely $93k mark. If prices don’t sing a sweet recovery song soon, the desperate may opt for a swift exit left.

So here we stand, still in a climate of fear, with educational levels low, and significant resistance looming overhead. A dip to $72k isnā€™t just a wild rumor; itā€™s a real possibility before Bitcoin dares to throw itself into the breakout dance.

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2025-04-12 03:07