Crypto Drama Unfolds: Circle Climbs While MicroStrategy Hits Snooze

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In the vast field where digital fortunes rise and fall, the stocks of digital assets have separated this week like stubborn horses refusing the same path, while the spot prices remained as motionless as a Russian winter’s night – yet the companies that hold these digital treasures whisper louder secrets.

The learned sages at 10x Research have spoken: the domain is cleaving in two, as the old guard, shackled by their own constraints, stumble while the new champions take the stage with gleaming banners. The once bountiful premiums that nourished growth now shrink like careless travelers skimping on vodka, bringing with them the ominous shadow of stress as the liquidity wanders elsewhere, like a lost Cossack searching for the nearest tavern.

Treasuries Decline, Yet Some Phoenixes Rise

Bitcoin itself, stoic and unbothered, barely moves, yet the growing divides among its faithful servants have raised the eyebrows of 10x’s wise men, who caution that this calm may be but the deceptive hush before a tempest worthy of Tolstoy’s own battlefield tales.

“What appears as consolidation may, in fact, be the calm before a sharp rotation.”

There was a time when MicroStrategy, like a spirited knight, eagerly purchased Bitcoin as if collecting medals for valor. Now, however, that fervor wanes. Its net asset value (NAV) multiple has fallen from the lofty heights of 1.75x in June to a rather pedestrian 1.24x in September, halting fresh acquisitions like a weary traveler after too many vodkas at dawn. The stock, once prancing proudly at $400, now limps at $326, proving conclusively that the treasury strategy without the sweet nectar of premium support is as effective as a sugar cube for a starving bear.

This skepticism does not dwell only within dusty research tomes.

“My best financial advice continues to be that you should just buy bitcoin if you want exposure to it and that you should stay as far away from $MSTR as possible – because it’s complicated, layered and you lose control.”

Such was the counsel of the thoughtful investor and podcaster named Jason, who, with a tone as clear as a Siberian winter morning, reminds us that treasury stocks may add labors of Sisyphus rather than simple pathways to profit.

Across the seas in Japan, a creature called Metaplanet, affectionately dubbed “Japan’s MicroStrategy,” tumbled a crushing 66% this summer, undone by the cruel twists of tax policy. Though trading near 1.5x NAV, it remains volatile as a wild stallion on a spring hillside, shaken by the capricious whims of retail flows.

Meanwhile, Circle has surprised the onlookers, rebounding nearly 20% since September 9th, buoyed by the embrace of USDC adoption through a partnership with Finastra – a partnership as hopeful as the peasants dreaming of better harvests. The wise watchers at 10x reaffirm their faith, declaring Circle a more alluring prize than Coinbase for those seeking to drink from the well of liquidity.

Options Reset: The Calm Before the Squeeze

Alongside the shifting landscape of equities, the world of derivatives murmurs its own tale of quiet. On September 12th, 10x reported a gentle fall in BTC implied volatility by 6%, with ETH sliding 12%, following producer prices that were as meek as a monk and consumer prices obediently lining up as expected. Traders sold volatility with the enthusiasm of a festival crowd, convinced that the ground beneath remained steady. Yet 10x wryly warns that these compressed premiums and subdued option prices may yet be the tinder for a sudden and fierce conflagration, should the currents of flow reverse with a capricious gesture.

The revered Galaxy Research estimates that digital asset treasury companies – those majestic titans of crypto wealth – now guard over $100 billion in digital riches, led by Strategy (known formerly as MicroStrategy), Metaplanet, and others. Their grand design depends on the ever-shrinking miracles of equity premiums, but the collapsing valuations threaten to choke the wellspring of capital, like peasants denied their harvest. Galaxy cautions that the At-the-Market offerings and PIPEs may be as double-edged as a tsar’s decree – fueling growth in bull times but turning bitter in the harsh winters of bear cycles.

The Monthly Outlook from Coinbase Institutional, like an old soothsayer, speaks of the sector entering a “PvP stage,” where triumph relies not on mimicry nor luck, but on skillful execution worthy of a Tolstoyan hero. The age of easy premiums, they say, has sunsetted, though flows still lend support to Bitcoin’s march into late 2025.

The ever-watchful BeInCrypto observes that treasury firm purchases have slowed to a leisurely pace, and several ETH-focused ventures now trade below their modified NAVs, casting shadows on fundraising efforts and raising the ghosts of forced sales. Smaller players, reliant on debt, dangle precariously over abysses, their liquidation cascades looming like ominous clouds over a summer sky.

The ultimate fate of Bitcoin, it seems, may pivot upon whether Circle’s vibrant resurgence breathes newfound confidence into the market, or whether the crushing squeeze upon NAVs for the old guard ignites further discord. For now, the options market hums a lullaby of calm, while the divergence among those treasury stocks tells the story of a cycle strained, creaking, and perhaps ready to stumble – all under the gaze of amused gods and sardonic market observers. 🤡

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2025-09-13 16:47