The Fate Of Avatar 4 & 5 Will Be Determined Soon

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Following the massive success of Avatar, James Cameron envisioned a large-scale future for the franchise. He didn’t want to stop with just one sequel, or even a traditional three-film series. Cameron actually developed plans for four sequels simultaneously, and 20th Century Studios enthusiastically agreed, with Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 currently scheduled for release in 2029 and 2031, respectively.

James Cameron delayed the release of his Avatar sequels because he wanted the visual effects to be truly groundbreaking. While originally planned for 2024 and 2025, only one of the four sequels has been released so far. That will change on December 19th with the premiere of Avatar: Fire and Ash, which was previously the scheduled release date for Avatar 5.

Instead of seeing the final film Cameron originally planned, we’re getting the third installment now. Interestingly, December 19th could still mark the end of the Avatar story, as the future of Avatar 4 and 5 remains uncertain.

Avatar 4 & 5 Depend On How Well Fire & Ash Does At The Box Office

Filming for Avatar 4 has started in a limited capacity. Director James Cameron proactively filmed scenes with the younger actors that will be needed before a significant time jump later in the story. However, the main production won’t begin until after Avatar 3, currently titled Fire and Ash, is released.

Allowing Cameron enough time to finish the third Avatar movie was a factor in this decision, but it’s also a cautious approach by him and the studios. Instead of immediately making two more visually-intensive and expensive sequels, they’re going to see how Fire and Ash performs at the box office to gauge whether audiences still want more films in the series.

Considering Avatar: The Way of Water earned over $2.3 billion worldwide, it might seem odd to question the success of the next film. However, there’s still uncertainty about how well Fire and Ash will perform financially. This concern isn’t limited to online critics; even director James Cameron has publicly stated he’s worried about whether the third movie will be a hit. He recently told Variety:

The biggest concern is whether ‘Avatar 3’ will be profitable. We expect it to earn money, but we need to determine how much profit it will actually generate, and if that profit is enough to justify continuing the ‘Avatar’ story in future films.

This could create more financial pressure for the film Fire and Ash. If audiences lose interest significantly, Disney and 20th Century might not make enough money back on their investment, potentially canceling Avatar 4 and Avatar 5. These films are very expensive, costing over $200 million each to produce. Director James Cameron previously stated that The Way of Water needed to earn over $2 billion to be profitable, and estimates of its budget ranged from $250 million to $460 million.

Rumor has it that Fire and Ash only cost $250 million to make. Considering James Cameron has mentioned rising VFX expenses, Avatar 4 and 5 will likely cost at least the same amount, potentially even more. This means the studio could be looking at another $500 million investment to finish these two movies.

Whether we make more films like this depends on how well Fire and Ash does – we need to prove people really want these movies, not just that the first two were lucky. Fortunately, early predictions for the box office are looking good. A strong start in the US and successful international launch will be key to the film’s success.

Although a strong opening weekend doesn’t guarantee success, it will give us a good early indication of whether Avatar: Fire and Ash will be a hit or fall short of expectations. If it does well, we can expect Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 to move forward.

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2025-11-25 02:29