Whales, Woes, and Wallets: Bitcoin’s Peculiar Plight 🌊💰

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Good heavens, what a tumult in the realm of Bitcoin! From the dizzying heights of £110,000 to a mere £80,000, the currency has tumbled like a debutante tripping on her first dance. Mr. Ki Young Ju, the sagacious CEO of CryptoQuant, attributes this calamity to the voracious selling of those ancient whales, whose cost bases linger near £16,000. 🦈💸

Their relentless liquidation, it seems, has quite overshadowed the earnest efforts of institutional suitors, such as ETFs and the ever-ambitious MicroStrategy. In a discourse with Upbit’s Upbitcare, Mr. Ju offers a most illuminating, data-driven gaze into this shifting landscape, where fortunes are made and lost with the whims of these financial leviathans. 📊🤷‍♂️

The Whales’ Waltz: A Tale of Profit and Pressure

Mr. Ju elucidates that the current market is a veritable duel between two factions of whales. The “legacy whales,” with their modest cost bases of £16,000, are now reaping profits with the zeal of a baronet claiming his inheritance. Their daily sales, amounting to hundreds of millions, have cast a shadow over Bitcoin’s price, much like a cloud on a summer’s day. ☁️💔

Meanwhile, the institutional whales, through their spot Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s grand designs, have amassed considerable holdings. Yet, their purchasing prowess pales in comparison to the selling spree of their predecessors. Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC for more than 155 days, with cost bases around £38,000, and Binance traders entering at £50,000, find themselves in a most profitable predicament, though one wonders how long they shall resist the temptation to sell. 🤑🤔

Mr. Ju observes that the earlier influx from spot ETFs and MicroStrategy had once buoyed the market, but alas, those tides have turned. Outflows now dominate, as evidenced by Farside Investors’ data, which revealed a mere £42.8 million in net inflows on November 26, 2025. Despite cumulative inflows reaching £62.68 billion, the persistent selling of the early whales has proven the more formidable force. 🌊📉

The Market’s Shoulder: A Cycle of Constrained Ambition

Through the lens of on-chain profit-and-loss metrics, Mr. Ju discerns that the market has entered the “shoulder” phase of its cycle-a late-stage affair that portends limited growth and heightened risk of correction. The valuation multiplier, once a beacon of optimism, now reflects a neutral-to-flat outlook, suggesting that market leverage has lost its former vigor. 📉🤨

In cycles past, each new pound would amplify market-cap growth, but such days appear to be behind us. This diminished multiplier effect hints at a market structure ill-suited for significant gains, leaving investors in a state of cautious contemplation. 🧐📊

Mr. Ju, ever the pragmatist, does not foresee a catastrophic 70-80% crash, but he deems a 30% correction quite plausible. A fall from £100,000 to £70,000, he posits, is within the realm of reason, supported by data from OKX futures long-short ratios, exchange leverage ratios, and buy-sell flow patterns. 📉🔍

He implores traders to embrace a data-driven approach, declaring, “Never trade without data.” His focus remains steadfast on interpreting on-chain data, exchange activity, and market structure, a beacon of rationality in a sea of speculation. 📚💡

Never trade without data.

– Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 27, 2025

In this comprehensive analysis, Mr. Ju presents a sobering yet grounded perspective. As the early Bitcoin whales continue their profitable exodus, institutions find themselves in a most unforgiving climate. With high leverage ratios, neutral valuation multipliers, and a late-cycle stance, the market’s potential for a significant rally appears as distant as a suitable match for a spinster of advanced years. 💔🤷‍♀️

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2025-11-28 03:12