As a seasoned crypto investor, I’ve seen my fair share of market volatility and macro events affecting the price action of Bitcoin (BTC). Today’s news that BTC held near two-month lows at the May 1 Wall Street open has me on edge. The uncertainty surrounding the next US interest rates announcement from the Federal Reserve (FED) and Chair Jerome Powell is causing skittishness across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
As a financial analyst, I’ve observed that Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around its two-month minimum levels during the opening of the Wall Street market in May. With uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US macroeconomic developments, risk assets including Bitcoin have been on edge.
Bitcoin volatility cools into FOMC
As a researcher analyzing cryptocurrency markets, I closely monitored data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView following Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatile price behavior. After hitting fresh lows at $56,500 on Bitstamp, the market displayed skittish movements, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.
Traders stayed alert, anxiously awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and the ensuing press conference led by Chair Jerome Powell.
Following the Quarterly Refunding Announcement, which negatively impacted the US liquidity forecast, investors anticipated a relatively dovish tone from Powell during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to avoid further market concerns.
As a crypto investor, I believe the upcoming FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference this afternoon will provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s more cautious approach to policy normalization. Consequently, USD money market pricing is expected to reflect a less aggressive cycle.
“As much as Chair Powell would prefer to play up ‘two-sided risks to the economic outlook’, the reality is the preponderance of evidence supports the ‘no landing’ scenario as the highest probability outcome. As such, ‘higher for longer’ is likely to be the dominant message today.”
As a researcher examining the most recent data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, I can report that the prospects for a rate hike or reduction in federal funds seem minimal, as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rates stands at an impressive 99%.
With a more positive outlook, noted Bitcoin and altcoin trader CrypNuevo proposed that the most significant losses for these cryptocurrencies might be behind us.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that Bitcoin took a significant hit recently. This downturn makes me believe that any remarks Jerome Powell makes today are probably already reflected in the market price.
“Will we get a retest of the range lows?”
In their most recent London and New York market reports shared via their Telegram channel, QCP Capital mentioned that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the Quantitative Tightening (QT) program could bring unexpected developments affecting investors’ risk appetite.
As an analyst, I’ve identified two significant happenings today that could intensify this downward trend or potentially bring about a reversal.
“Firstly, if Powell is dovish at FOMC, it could provide a bullish flip. Secondly, if the QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) sees heavy issuances in US bills (front-end) instead of the 10-year (back-end) it would reduce fears of longer-term rates spiking and might put some brakes on the USD rally.”
BTC price in “typical” bull market retrace
Bitcoin traders kept a close eye on significant price thresholds for Bitcoin (BTC) following the breakdown of several key support lines.
As a researcher studying the cryptocurrency market, I’ve observed that the recent pullback in Bitcoin’s price has been extending for nearly 50 days now. This trend was highlighted by prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital in one of his recent posts.
As an analyst, I’d like to share that a complementary graph I examined illustrates the declines in Bitcoin’s price during the ongoing bull market which commenced in early 2023.
In their description, Rekt Capital referred to the recent price drop exceeding 20% as a “common occurrence” or “standard move” within the current market scenario.
“Typical retraces have been 2-3 weeks, longer ones up to 2 months,” he noted.
As a researcher, I’d like to share my perspective on DecenTrader’s co-founder Filbfilb’s prediction. He foresees a potential Bitcoin resurgence, drawing parallels with gold’s price surge in recent years. In simpler terms, similar to how the price of gold has significantly increased, Filbfilb believes Bitcoin could experience a comparable renaissance in value.
As a crypto investor, I believe there’s room for the price to dip further based on my analysis of the charts. However, if these assets follow a bullish trend over the coming months, their price action may resemble this general idea.
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2024-05-01 17:19