Ethereum ETFs could ‘grab 20%’ share of BTC ETFs: Analyst predicts

As a researcher with experience in analyzing the crypto market and ETF trends, I believe that the US Ethereum [ETH] ETF may not attract as much capital flows as the US Bitcoin [BTC] ETF did upon launch. Based on Eric Balchunas’ analysis, who compared ETH to Silver and BTC to Gold in the futures market, ETH only commanded about 20% of BTC’s average market share.

The anticipated debut of a US-listed Ethereum [ETH] ETF could face challenges in matching the achievement of the Bitcoin [BTC] ETF, based on estimates by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. He projects that these Ethereum spot ETFs might capture only around twenty percent of the market share held by their Bitcoin counterpart.

Part of Balchunas’ analysis read,

As a crypto investor, I’d advise myself to adjust expectations by a significant margin when it comes to the volume, media coverage, and overall impact of Ethereum spot ETFs compared to Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, achieving just 20% of the success that Bitcoin ETFs have seen upon launch would still represent a substantial victory and a highly successful introduction by standard ETF metrics.

Ethereum ETF vs. Silver ETF

As a researcher examining the BTC ETF market, I’ve discovered that approximately 20% of its current market share is derived from the existing market share on the futures market. Regarding Ethereum ETFs, they are already accessible in various jurisdictions through futures ETF offerings.

As an analyst, I’ve examined the data from the futures markets, where Bitcoin (BTC) held approximately 80% of the market share on average, while Ethereum (ETH) accounted for around 20%. This pattern could potentially be reflected in spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), too.

As a researcher studying the market trends, I’m taking into account the underperformance of Ethereum futures as a significant factor in my analysis. However, the robust performances in European markets compel me to strike a balance between my initial assessment and my final prediction, settling on a 20% share for Ethereum in the market.

Ethereum ETFs could ‘grab 20%’ share of BTC ETFs: Analyst predicts

As an analyst, I’ve compared Bitcoin (BTC) to gold and Ethereum (ETH) to silver based on their respective roles in their markets. Furthermore, I’ve delved into the Gold vs Silver Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) dynamics, taking a cue from Balchunas’ observation that the Silver ETF currently holds just 15% of the Gold ETF’s market share.

“Many won’t feel the need to go beyond bitcoin/gold for their crypto/precious metals allocation.”

According to Balchuna’s estimation, approximately $2.7 billion worth of Ethereum ETFs might have been traded in the US market by May 28th, given the current trend in Bitcoin ETF investments, which totalled $13.7 billion during that timeframe.

From Hong Kong’s point of view, there were significantly more Bitcoin investments than Ethereum investments in leading ETF products, according to Bosera’s data.

Based on Farside’s data analysis, the Bosera BTC spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in Hong Kong recorded inflows of approximately $15.3 million, while its ETH ETF product attracted about $7.5 million. This signifies that around half of the total inflows for Bosera’s Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs went to the BTC spot ETF.

Based on information from CoinMarketCap, the market capitalization of Ethereum at $454 billion accounted for approximately thirty-four percent of Bitcoin’s massive $1.3 trillion market cap.

As an analyst, I’ve been monitoring the developments surrounding US-listed ETFs based on Ethereum (ETH). Based on current information, there are indications that these products could become available for trading as soon as July. Some market observers even predict that the price of Ethereum may reach around $4,500 prior to the launch.

2024-05-30 09:11

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