- Bitcoin’s market balance somewhat unsettled due to excess long/short positions
- Geopolitical tensions are affecting Bitcoin’s price
As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience under my belt, I can confidently say that the current state of the cryptocurrency market is a fascinating blend of opportunity and uncertainty. The unsettled market balance of Bitcoin (BTC) due to excessive long/short positions, coupled with geopolitical tensions, makes for an intriguing cocktail that could lead to both corrections and potential rallies.
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the broader cryptocurrency market is currently on a downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) spearheading this negative trend. Despite touching an all-time high of around $66,000 towards late September, it’s now valued slightly over $60,000 at the moment when I’m writing this.
Based on information from Hyblock Capital, it appears that the market equilibrium of Bitcoin is slightly unstable. This could potentially lead to another price adjustment, especially during the initial phase of the fourth quarter of 2024.
Observing such aggressive investing tactics can offer clues about possible shifts in market direction. When investors heavily favor buying (long positions) or selling (short positions), it suggests an imbalance in the market equilibrium.
It’s important to grasp the equilibrium of the market since too many long or short positions can indicate possible adjustments or changes in trends.
Several investors were expecting a rising market trend, yet recent developments seem to be shifting investor feelings towards something else.
Bitcoin Short-Term holder supply
Reducing their holdings of Bitcoin by approximately 80,000 units, short-term investors might trigger a fresh upward price movement, known as a bullish trend. This decrease could provide some stability to the market, potentially allowing Bitcoin to recover more quickly.
Over the past few weeks, an excessive amount of Bitcoin supply has been entering the market, putting pressure on its price to drop. As I’m typing this, the trading value of Bitcoin is lower than its Simple Moving Average over the past year, hinting at a potentially gloomy forecast for the cryptocurrency.
If more Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming available as people’s interest in buying it lessens, it seems probable that the value of BTC will keep falling. This could indicate that a downward adjustment or correction might occur soon.
Interest in active cryptocurrencies
Since late 2021, the count of actively used cryptocurrencies has remained fairly stable, which could indicate waning enthusiasm for starting fresh projects in this field.
Multiple elements might be influencing this pattern, such as market instability and strict regulations. This scenario seems to suggest that Bitcoin may experience a downward adjustment in its graph in the near future.
Global tensions affecting prices
The ongoing geopolitical disputes, notably the strife between Iran and Israel, seem to impact the value of cryptocurrencies as well. Interestingly, past trends indicate that Bitcoin’s price tends to experience a short-term decrease during actual conflicts, only to bounce back afterwards.
For example, starting from October 2023, Bitcoin initially dropped by 5% within its first four days. But then, it experienced a rise of approximately 12% over the subsequent nine days.
In a similar vein, when the Ukraine-Russia conflict erupted in February 2022, Bitcoin fell approximately 10% on its initial day, yet it skyrocketed around 27% over the next six days.
Based on these trends, it seems like Bitcoin might be experiencing a downturn, possibly followed by an increase later in the final three months of the year. But, could the undisturbed ‘whales’ prevent Bitcoin from dropping below the $60,000 mark at this point?
BTC’s whale activity
Regardless of the present market’s turbulence, both seasoned and novice investors seem unperturbed. The fluctuations in the Futures market are merely components of a larger plan, where significant market shifts happen primarily through direct trading and off-exchange transactions (Over-the-Counter), as Ki Young Ju pointed out on X.
1) An increase in Bitcoins being stored in secure wallets implies that long-term investors are accumulating more Bitcoin. This action suggests a positive, or ‘bullish’, perspective on Bitcoin’s future value over time.
In reality, the data from CryptoQuant shows that established Bitcoin holders (older whales) aren’t experiencing significant profits, but on the other hand, newer Bitcoin investors (newer whales) are actively buying more Bitcoin.
This could assist Bitcoin in maintaining its value above the $60,000 mark. However, it’s crucial to remember that the trend is influenced by the volatile and uncertain nature of cryptocurrency markets.
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2024-10-04 10:16