As a researcher with a background in both politics and blockchain technology, I find myself intrigued by this fascinating intersection of the two worlds. The increasing lead of Donald Trump on the leading blockchain-based betting market is certainly a topic that demands attention.
The lead of Donald Trump, former U.S. President, in the top blockchain-based betting market is approaching 67%, with a significant player (whale) repeatedly placing wagers on Trump’s victory in the November 5th presidential election.
On October 28th, the probability of Donald Trump winning the next U.S. Presidential Election exceeded 66.3%, as per the latest data from the top decentralized forecasting platform, Polymarket.
The chances of Trump’s victory boosted as a significant investor in Polymarket, known as a ‘whale’ or large holder, poured an additional 2 million US Dollars worth of USD Coin (USDC) tokens into wagers favoring Trump.
As a crypto investor, I’ve recently learned that a secretive entity, often referred to as a ‘whale,’ has invested a substantial sum of $7.22 million into “Yes” shares, according to the insights shared by Lookonchain in their October 28 post.
“Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million ‘Yes’ shares on Donald Trump winning the US election, with an unrealized profit of $256,000.”
In just seven days before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, prediction markets based on decentralized systems might provide more precise predictions compared to conventional polling methods, as suggested by billionaire Elon Musk.
On October 4th, the odds at Polymarket switched to favor Trump, signifying a significant turnaround from September’s trends. By October 12th, as per CryptoMoon’s reports, Trump was ahead by more than 10 points.
Mysterious Polymarket whale seems unrelated to “Fredi9999”
A significant player on the Polymarket platform, identified as “zxgngl,” has accumulated more than 11.2 million affirmative votes valued at over $7.5 million, based on available data from Polymarket.
On Polymarket, a prominent Trump supporter known as “Fredi9999” has been steadily increasing their bets, pushing the probability of a Trump victory above 60.2%. This was achieved by investing over $20 million on “Yes” shares, up until October 18th.
As an analyst, I’ve observed that Fredi appears to manage four of the top six accounts on Polymarket that predominantly voted for Trump. These accounts were funded through deposits of either $1 million or $500,000 from Kraken, which were swiftly utilized to place Trump-related bets.
99% of zxgngl’s wagers were similarly placed on Trump, yet their account wasn’t financed by Kraken, but rather Binance. Moreover, their deposit activities diverge noticeably, with the last two deposits via Binance being $338,000 and a substantial $1.68 million.
Regarding Fredi, it appears that the account may be managed by someone strongly believing in a Trump triumph, as suggested by anonymous political gambler Domer, who shared this opinion with CryptoMoon.
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
US presidential elections fuel 565% prediction market growth
The upcoming US elections have boosted investor interest in prediction markets.
In the third quarter, wagers on prediction markets surged by a massive 565.4%, climbing all the way up to a staggering $3.1 billion. This significant increase came from a humble starting point of $463.3 million in the previous quarter.
As I delve into my data analysis, it’s become evident that the notable surge in third-quarter growth can largely be linked to the impending US elections, based on insights from a CoinGecko report published on October 14th.
As a researcher examining the decentralized betting landscape, I’ve found that by September, Polymarket had solidified its dominance, holding an impressive 99% market share – a testament to its popularity and influence within the industry.
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2024-10-28 14:45