As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience navigating the volatile and unpredictable world of financial markets, I find myself treading carefully when it comes to predicting the crypto market’s response to the U.S. election. While I have seen many instances where political events have significantly impacted market trends, I am wary of making bold predictions about the outcome.
Numerous experts within the cryptocurrency field anticipate that if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election scheduled for November 3, it may spark a significant surge in the crypto market.
On the other hand, certain financial experts advise crypto investors to exercise caution in the time leading up to and following election day, since there might be other influencing elements at work.
Pav Hundal, chief analyst at Swyftx, stated to CryptoMoon that a Trump win could potentially bring about an increase in excitement or pleasure (dopamine hit), but also indicated that the financial markets might experience higher levels of instability and volatility during the election period.
What should traders expect post-election? It’s up in the air, say analysts
Nick Forster, the founder, advises traders to tread carefully since the current market conditions indicate a high level of volatility. He also cautions that while there could be potential benefits, the associated risks are equally substantial.
According to Forster’s statement, it appears that traders anticipate substantial price fluctuations around the scheduled election date based on the data related to options.
An uptick in call purchases suggests that certain investors might be optimistic about a positive market trend. This optimism could stem from speculation known as ‘buying the rumor’. However, the situation could change dramatically if the actual election results don’t align with these expectations, leading to a downturn or ‘sell the news’ scenario.
Starting October 23rd, the value of Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 7.62%, currently standing at $72,432 as of publication time. This is only a 2% difference from its record high of $73,679, which it reached in March.
However, Hundal doesn’t see the election result “as the decisive factor in Bitcoin hitting $100K.”
I share a comparable viewpoint with Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, who believes that the value of this particular asset could surge past six figures, irrespective of the election’s outcome.
Without an unexpected external event disrupting the market, it’s expected that the price of Bitcoin could reach six figures by the end of this year, regardless of who occupies the White House.
‘Diversified strategy’ may be best, says analyst
According to Forster, it’s unclear whether the financial markets will experience a decline following the release of election news (a “buy the news, sell the rumor” scenario) or a rise in the cryptocurrency market if Trump wins the election.
According to Forster, it’s advantageous for traders to adopt a “varied approach” that encompasses hedging tactics rather than just straightforward purchasing. This is especially beneficial in a market that reacts strongly to both local and international news events.
In simpler terms, Hundal doesn’t stress too much about less experienced traders timing their trades, as he is optimistic about the market growing upwards towards 2025.
In simpler terms, Hundal mentioned that it’s debatable whether the timing of trades is crucial under the current conditions, except perhaps for experienced investors aiming to seize short-term profit chances related to the U.S. election results.
It’s quite likely that the market could experience volatile swings based on the outcome of the U.S. election. However, the core economic indicators suggest a trend of growth, as he further noted.
According to Hundal’s statements, they align with those made by David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, who expressed in a market report on October 21st that Bitcoin is expected to perform well, regardless of the outcome of the election.
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2024-10-30 09:15