As a seasoned crypto investor with a keen eye for market trends and a knack for sniffing out hidden influences, I find myself intrigued by the recent developments in the decentralized prediction markets, particularly Polymarket’s Trump vs Harris bet. The concentration of shares in Trump’s “Yes” votes among a few mysterious entities is a red flag that sets off my bullishness radar.
In simpler terms, it appears that significant support for Donald Trump’s “Yes” votes on popular prediction markets relies heavily on a small number of unknown forces, with large political gamblers investing millions of dollars in their choices before the U.S. elections.
According to a politically-oriented, anonymous investor known as Domer, more than half of Donald Trump’s stocks are owned by just five significant investors.
This could result in an over $81 million payday for the whales, Domer wrote in an Oct. 31 X post:
“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares — including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”
Instead, Vice President Kamala Harris’ stocks are spread out among many owners, as the top five hold merely 18% of her “Yes” votes. In comparison, Harris’ largest stockholder possesses just 4.4% of her stocks, whereas Trump’s leading shareholder commands a significant 29.1%. This was pointed out by Domer.
The disclosure emerges just before the U.S. presidential election, an event that’s gaining attention among cryptocurrency investors because it may influence the regulatory environment of the sector for the following four years.
It’s possible that at least four out of the six biggest Trump bettors, which include accounts such as “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” might be operated by a single entity with a high confidence in Trump winning, according to Domer’s statement to CryptoMoon.
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
Trump continues to lead, but polling results differ
Although experiencing some fluctuation over the weekend, Trump currently holds the top position on the primary decentralized betting platform, Polymarket.
The data from Polymarket shows that the likelihood of Donald Trump winning the presidency is approximately 57%, whereas Joe Biden (or Kamala Harris, as Vice President) has a roughly 43% chance.
In contrast, the gap between Trump and Harris is narrower in other wagering platforms. On Kalshi, for instance, 54% of betters predict a win for Trump, whereas 46% expect Harris to emerge victorious.
From my perspective as an analyst, it seems that the conventional polling methods portray a contrasting scenario. Based on The New York Times’ national polling average, Harris stands at a 49% probability of securing the presidency, while Trump is close behind with a 48% chance.
In simpler terms, prediction markets run without a central authority might provide more precise forecasts compared to conventional surveys or polls, since individuals are essentially placing bets with their own money, as suggested by entrepreneur Elon Musk.
On October 4th, the chances at Polymarket shifted towards Donald Trump, signifying a significant turnaround from the preceding month of September. By October 12th, Trump had gained a substantial lead of more than 10 points, according to CryptoMoon’s reports.
Bitcoin investors take profit as Trump’s odds see volatility
The fluctuation in Polymarket betting odds, combined with Harris’ recent lead in traditional polls, is encouraging some people to cash in their profits.
According to Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, this primary factor led to the adjustment in Bitcoin’s (BTC) value as he shared with CryptoMoon.
“At the end of last week, newly released polls showed Harris with a narrow 2–3% lead. Given Trump’s pro-crypto stance and his ambition to position America as a digital asset leader, his potential loss is perceived as a short- to medium-term setback for Bitcoin’s growth potential. This political shift has contributed to recent profit-taking, reinforcing Bitcoin’s ongoing price correction.”
As an analyst, I’ve noticed that some refer to the October surge in Bitcoin’s price as the “Trump pump.” This label arises due to the apparent correlation between Bitcoin’s price appreciation and the increasing likelihood of Donald Trump’s re-election for president. On October 29th, the Bitcoin price skyrocketed above $73,600, reaching its highest point since March 2024 – a mere $200 shy of setting a new all-time high.
However, some analysts argue that the ongoing market surge might not be based on robust macroeconomic factors but rather a “Trump safety net” ahead of the November 5 elections. This suggests they don’t foresee a fresh record high in the market following the elections.
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2024-11-04 15:54