As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience in the financial markets, I’ve seen my fair share of market fluctuations and presidential elections. The upcoming U.S. election could indeed bring heightened volatility to Bitcoin, but this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it might just be the catalyst that pushes BTC‘s price trajectory upwards.
As an analyst, I anticipate that Bitcoin’s price might experience increased volatility post the U.S. presidential election. However, from my perspective, this potential turbulence could be seen as a favorable sign for its future price trend.
8:05 am UTC on the day of the election finds Bitcoin (BTC) still below its previous record peak of $69,000, showing little signs of significant surge at this time.
Analysts at Bitfinex suggest that the recent stability in Bitcoin’s price might reflect a cautious attitude among traders as they await the outcome of upcoming elections.
On the other hand, a rise in volatility might foster Bitcoin’s price growth, according to Bitfinex analysts. They pointed out:
“If the expected volatility fails to materialize, it may indicate a more substantial issue at play and a much deeper correction for BTC on the lower timeframes. In terms of the options market, apathy to price movements often reflects a more bearish sentiment than strong put buying.”
Bitcoin might gain an advantage if former President Donald Trump were to win, given his reputation for being supportive of cryptocurrencies compared to other candidates.
If Donald Trump were to win the upcoming election, it might set the stage for another Bitcoin surge. However, even if Vice President Kamala Harris takes office instead, analysts at Sygnum believe a Bitcoin rally is still plausible. (This sentence maintains the original message but uses simpler and more conversational language.)
“[Post-election] the market will continue its upward trajectory in anticipation of the positive regulatory and legislative developments in the US once the new president takes office next January. This is likely to be the case irrespective of the election outcome; however, as market sentiment favors a Trump win, the rally may be more pronounced under this scenario.”
On October 29th, the value of a single Bitcoin almost reached a record peak, climbing over $73,600 – its highest point since March, just before the election.
End of the Bitcoin “Trump trade” after elections?
Many financiers refer to Bitcoin’s surge in October as the “Trump boost,” suggesting that its growth may have been linked to an increase in Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election.
In a different wording, Bitfinex analysts suggest that the “Trump trade” for Bitcoin might conclude following the elections.
“Our base case has remained that the “Trump Tradeˮ only pertains to Bitcoin as far as pre-election speculation is concerned.”
Some other experts suggest that Bitcoin serves as a stand-in for anticipation of a Trump win. Yet, the present surge (often referred to as the “Trump hedge” rally) seems devoid of the essential economic factors necessary to push Bitcoin to a fresh record high.
Altcoin market set for more downside in the short term
Independent of the election outcomes, it’s anticipated that the market for altcoins – which encompasses digital currencies other than Bitcoin and Ether (Ethereum) – may continue to trend lower.
Lesser-known cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, not among the top 10 most valuable tokens, have experienced substantial price drops. This trend may continue even following the election, as suggested by Bitfinex analysts in their recent analysis.
“We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to Bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators. This general disinterest among investors suggests that upward momentum in altcoins is unlikely without a significant catalyst.”
As a researcher delving into the realm of cryptocurrencies, I’m observing a general anticipation among analysts for an “altcoin season.” However, it appears that the potential yields might not be as robust as in prior altcoin market upswings.
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2024-11-05 12:18