As a seasoned researcher who has delved into various financial markets and prediction platforms, I must say that this surge of interest in political betting, particularly around the US presidential election, is nothing short of fascinating. It’s like watching a high-stakes game of chess where each move can significantly impact the outcome.
People are heavily invested in the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election, with transactions approaching $4 billion on leading prediction market platforms, as more and more people cast their votes on November 5th, based on an analysis by CryptoMoon.
The decentralized prediction market platform, Polymarket, has become leading in political bettings. Despite being prohibited in the U.S., over $3.3 billion worth of trades have taken place on the presidential election, as stated on their official site.
However, relatively new online betting services based in the U.S., such as Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers, have experienced rapid growth since their debut in October.
Combined, these platforms are estimated to have drawn over half a billion dollars in bets for the presidential elections, as stated on their respective sites.
Republican candidate Donald Trump leads Harris across the top prediction platforms.
Currently, as of November 5th, prediction markets like Polymarket estimate that Trump’s chances of winning are about 62%, while platforms such as Kalshi and Interactive Brokers suggest a slightly lower probability of around 58%. This information is based on the respective apps’ websites.
Betting platforms offer users a chance to purchase agreements, each having a two-pronged payoff system based on the results of political contests.
They address everything from the US presidential race to Senate campaigns, cabinet appointments, and even New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s possible resignation.
As an analyst, I frequently observe that among the preferred agreements, there’s a significant interest in bets related to the public’s preference and the margin by which the victorious candidate will win an election.
Together, these contracts generated approximately $1 billion worth of trading action spread across various platforms, as per CryptoMoon’s examination of publicly available information.
Heated competition
On October 7th, Kalshi made available contracts for wagering on U.S. election results following their victory in a significant legal dispute in September.
For the very first time, an election prediction market was allowed to function within the U.S., opening up a path for other similar platforms to participate as well.
Since then, competition has been heated.
On October 28th, Robinhood unveiled an option for select users to place wagers predicting the result of the upcoming presidential election through contract trading.
On its own, the X platform reports that it has already reached a trading volume of approximately $200 million just for the presidential race.
In October, Interactive Brokers introduced betting markets focused on elections. These presidential election markets have attracted approximately $50 million in total trading volume.
On October 28th, Kalshi Kalshi began accepting deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a widely used stablecoin. By November 5th, they had also enabled USDC deposits from the Polygon blockchain network, as announced on their X platform.
Manipulation fears
In October, Polymarket faced criticism following several investigations suggesting that around 30% of its U.S. presidential election bets were made through wash trading – a practice aimed at unnaturally increasing trade volume by manipulating the market.
It’s been claimed that five significant investors from Polymarket reportedly acquired more than half of the shares, predicting a Trump victory, as per the assertions made by an anonymous political gambler known as Domer.
Winnings from Polymarket’s presidential bets might not be distributed until January 20, 2025, if AP, Fox, and NBC don’t unanimously determine a decisive victor first.
In September, Kalshi successfully contested a legal action against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which had previously prohibited Kalshi from offering contracts based on political events.
The CFTC said election prediction markets such as Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
As a researcher, I expressed in a comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in August that Event Contract Markets are a crucial public resource, and I’ve found no substantial proof indicating they are being manipulated or misused for harmful intentions, as claimed by the commission.
In August, the financial data and news service, Bloomberg LP, incorporated election odds data from Polymarket into their Terminal.
Read More
- DYM PREDICTION. DYM cryptocurrency
- CYBER PREDICTION. CYBER cryptocurrency
- ZK PREDICTION. ZK cryptocurrency
- JASMY PREDICTION. JASMY cryptocurrency
- POPCAT PREDICTION. POPCAT cryptocurrency
- Top gainers and losers
- SKEY PREDICTION. SKEY cryptocurrency
- TURBO PREDICTION. TURBO cryptocurrency
- RUNE PREDICTION. RUNE cryptocurrency
- GEOD PREDICTION. GEOD cryptocurrency
2024-11-05 22:47