As someone who has been closely following the crypto market since its early days, I find this week’s news particularly intriguing. The labor market data in the US is about to take center stage, and as we all know, the Fed’s decision can have a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price.
As we move into December, Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around the $100,000 mark, yet remains elusive, concluding an unprecedented month.
- Ranging below all-time highs is keeping Bitcoin traders guessing over when the magical six-figure BTC price tag will appear.
- November 2024 sets the record for Bitcoin’s biggest US dollar gains in a single monthly candle.
- Funding rates show a lack of overheated market conditions — a key ingredient in supporting further upside.
- A bumper week of US employment data precedes the Federal Reserve’s crunch interest rate decision.
- Onchain profit trends are channeling classic parabolic bull market vibes with a rare SOPR “golden cross.”
Bitcoin works on “bull flag” below $100,000
In simpler terms, Bitcoin managed to sidestep sudden price fluctuations as it reached the end of the week, following November’s confirmation of an important price breakout for Bitcoin.
On December 2nd, as reported by CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView, the BTC/USD pair is still orbiting around $95,000. Many observers view this figure as a significant milestone, with Bitcoin potentially breaking through it to a new level above $100,000.
As a researcher, I’ve been closely observing the latest Bitcoin price fluctuations, and I’d like to share some insights gained from this analysis. Notably, the well-known trader and analyst, Rekt Capital, has identified a significant support retest in the market. This means that the price reached a level where it previously found strong support (buyers stepping in), suggesting potential for stability or even an uptrend in the near future.
As an analyst, I’ve noticed an uptick of approximately 7% in Bitcoin’s value following its successful hold at roughly $91,000 as a support level, as highlighted on my daily chart analysis posted on platform X.
“In the short-term, it will be worth watching how the price action continues to develop within this potential Bull Flagging structure.”
As a researcher, I noted that surpassing the daily closing price of $97,450 might trigger further momentum towards reapproaching the $100,000 milestone yet again.
As a crypto investor, I’ve taken note that Keith Alan, the co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, has pointed out potential support levels at $95,000 and $90,000 if the market takes a dip. This means that these prices could act as a safety net or a floor for the cryptocurrency’s value, providing some reassurance in case of a downturn.
In a portion of his recent analysis, Kevin Svenson suggested that a quick retest of the current support level might occur within a short span.
“Overall my bias is bullish despite short term.”
An accompanying chart targeted $93,500 as the potential next support retest zone.
Monthly BTC price performance: “A new ballgame”
Bitcoin may not be at $100,000 yet, but over the weekend, BTC price action quietly made history.
With a cap at $96,400 for the November monthly candle, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) set a new record for the largest one-month increase in U.S. dollars.
In a positive response, Cory Klippsten, the CEO of Swan Bitcoin, stated it’s a whole new game.
On the monthly chart, the candle appears exceptional or extraordinary, but when viewed from a percentage perspective, it’s actually quite typical or commonplace.
According to data from CoinGlass, the increase in November was only about 37%, which is significantly lower than Bitcoin’s highest gains in any other November on record.
As a researcher, I eagerly anticipate the forthcoming adjustment that Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments – a pioneering venture focusing on quantitative Bitcoin and digital assets – predicts will be implemented soon, restoring equilibrium to the market.
As a researcher, I’ve observed that every cycle, we witness Bitcoin price discoveries yielding significant returns, typically ranging from 4 to 7 months. Over the past weekend, I found myself elated as we’ve just experienced our first such cycle in November!
“The next months will have insane long opportunities. The normie mind is not ready.”
Edwards further explained that surpassing the $100,000 barrier could trigger a fresh surge of exponential price movement.
True fear of missing out (FOMO) sets in when prices exceed $100,000. After the massive selling barrier is broken, we move into an area with low supply and increased demand from retail buyers, potentially creating a never-ending bidding war. Consider the numbers.
Earlier on, Edwards proposed an idea where Bitcoin might emulate the behavior of gold following its successful breach of significant resistance levels this year.
Funding rates stay steady
Market stability may well allow a shot at acclimatizing to six-figure Bitcoin.
According to well-known trader Jelle, the funding rates on various exchanges are holding steady even as prices approach record highs.
“Lots of talk about price needing a bigger pullback & the market being unhealthy. Meanwhile, price chilling at $95,000 with near-baseline funding,” he told X followers.
Funding has exhibited that relaxed trend for weeks, even as BTC/USD sets repeat new records.
The funding rates for Bitcoin remain quite low given the increased number of predictions about market peaks that have been made lately, as per the analysis shared by the influential account Bitcoindata21 last week.
In simpler terms, Bitcoindata21 is pointing out that the current Bitcoin bull market resembles the one in 2021, a time when funding rates were significantly greater. Even during March 2024, when Bitcoin reached an old peak of $73,800 against the US Dollar, there was still a much higher level of funding compared to what we’re experiencing now.
US jobs data in the spotlight
This week’s economic data from the United States is heavily influenced by the job market, as we inch closer to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates.
On December 3, there will be new job opportunities announced. Two days after that, we’ll see jobless claims being filed. The week will conclude with the release of unemployment reports.
This week is shaping up to be significant for the job market, as per The Kobeissi Letter’s analysis of the macroeconomic calendar.
Kobeissi pointed out that these prints represent the final set of employment market data prior to the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 18th.
On December 18th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will make a decision about whether or not to adjust the key interest rates. According to CryptoMoon’s latest report, most bets still lean towards a 0.25% reduction; however, the markets are less confident compared to previous months.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently puts the odds of a 0.25% cut at 67%.
If Bitcoin fails to surge in value before the FOMC meeting on December 18th, a 25 basis point interest rate reduction could serve as an early holiday gift. More significantly, it might well be the trigger that propels Bitcoin’s price over $100,000. (Material Indicators’ Alan further stated)
“On the other hand, no cut could be the catalyst that triggers a correction and a BTC Flash Sale.”
Bitcoin metric golden cross teases “sharp rise”
Bitcoin analysis is unearthing new signals supporting upside continuation.
This week, we’re focusing on the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which has just formed its second “golden cross” in this ongoing bull market.
Emphasizing the significance, CryptoDan, a contributor to the cryptocurrency analytics platform CryptoQuant, stated that the event’s meaning was clear-cut.
In one of his recent posts for CryptoQuant’s Quicktake blog, published on Dec 2nd, he stated that “Following the appearance of a golden cross, the market typically experiences a significant upward trend within a period of no more than 2 months.
“The upcoming rise is likely to be a ‘sharp rise in the final phase of the upward cycle.’”
As an analyst, I examine the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) to determine if coins involved in on-chain transactions are being transacted at a higher or lower price than their previous transaction, thereby indicating on-chain profitability. A golden cross event occurs when the moving average of the metric over the past 30 days surpasses its counterpart covering a 365-day period.
In advanced stages of a market cycle, the upward swings tend to be more significant, while downturns or adjustments become shorter in duration.
“If a steep rise occurs as implied by this indicator within the end of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, it can be expected that new inflows and additional funds will enter the market, bringing it to its peak.”
Previously, CryptoMoon shared insights about a rise in the tendency for veteran Bitcoin owners to sell their holdings more frequently.
Read More
- FLOKI PREDICTION. FLOKI cryptocurrency
- CAKE PREDICTION. CAKE cryptocurrency
- OKB PREDICTION. OKB cryptocurrency
- TRB PREDICTION. TRB cryptocurrency
- DMTR PREDICTION. DMTR cryptocurrency
- TRAC PREDICTION. TRAC cryptocurrency
- OM PREDICTION. OM cryptocurrency
- XDC PREDICTION. XDC cryptocurrency
- JTO PREDICTION. JTO cryptocurrency
- Dandadan Shares First Look at Season Finale: Watch
2024-12-02 12:18