So, Bitcoin (BTC) decided to throw a little tantrum and closed at a mere $80,688 on March 9. That’s the lowest it’s been since Nov. 11, 2024. Talk about a dramatic fall from grace! 🙈
And guess what? It also dipped below its precious 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in two weeks. I mean, can we get a little consistency here? High time frame (HTF) weakness is the new black, apparently.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is screaming “extreme fear” on March 10. But don’t worry, one BTC market simulation is still waving its pom-poms for bullish projections in the latter half of 2025. Go team! 🎉
Monte Carlo model signals an 800% BTC price rise
Enter Mark Quant, our crypto researcher extraordinaire, who decided to play with a Monte Carlo simulation to predict Bitcoin’s price. Because who doesn’t love a good gamble, right?
This Monte Carlo model is like a magic eight ball for crypto, using random sampling to simulate price projections and assess risk. It’s like throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks, but with numbers!
Starting with an initial price of $82,655, the study predicts a mean final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. But hold your horses! The price could swing anywhere from $51,430 (yikes!) to a whopping $713,000. Talk about a rollercoaster! 🎢
But let’s not forget, this Monte Carlo model is like that friend who always shows up late to the party. It relies heavily on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes the asset value is just wandering around aimlessly with a constant parameter drift. Classic! 😅
In this analysis, Bitcoin’s wild volatility is baked right into the model, capturing its long-term historical performance while trying to keep up with future shifts. Essentially, it’s like rolling the dice and hoping for a six!
Last week, Quant also pointed out a correlation between the total crypto market cap and the global liquidity index, suggesting that the TOTAL market cap might just hit new highs above $4 trillion in Q2 2025. Fingers crossed! 🤞
Bitcoin eyes new CME gap after $80K retest
Over the weekend, Bitcoin decided to drop 6.38%, creating a fresh CME futures gap. The CME Bitcoin futures gap is just a fancy way of saying there’s a price difference between when CME Bitcoin futures close on Friday and when they reopen on Sunday evening. It’s like a dramatic cliffhanger! 📉
As you can see in the chart, the CME gap is currently lounging between $83,000 and $86,000, which is a cozy $3,000 gap. Historically, Bitcoin loves to “fill” these gaps, like a kid filling their candy bag after Halloween. 🍬
Mark Cullen, our technical analyst buddy, also pointed out this CME gap and speculated about a potential short squeeze before the US markets open on March 10. But he added,
“Lose the weekly open at ~80K and there is a gap down to low 70K’s.”
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2025-03-10 13:41