Will This Week’s $2.5B Bitcoin Options Expiry Move Markets?

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Ah, what’s this? A mere $2.54 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts ready to expire this Friday, May 2. A positively pedestrian amount, wouldn’t you say? But fret not, it’s all in a day’s work for the world of high-flying crypto!

In the grand scheme of things, this week’s event is rather ordinary. The markets have been rather sedate, almost as if everyone’s on holiday. Meanwhile, the spot markets are playing hard to get, showing faint signs of recovery. How charming.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Now, this batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 1. Oh yes, a perfect little balance between the optimists and the pessimists, like a carefully curated cocktail party. You’ll find that the max pain point is set at a glorious $90,000, where everyone will experience their greatest losses. Delightful, isn’t it?

And let’s not forget the open interest (OI)—the value of all those still-to-expire contracts. It’s highest at $100,000, with a bullish sentiment that would make even the most hardened trader blush. A full $1.5 billion staked on the belief that the price will go up. How charmingly optimistic.

But wait—there’s also a fair smattering of OI at $80,000 and $65,000 strike prices. Yes, the bears are still lurking about, keeping their short options open. It’s almost like they’re waiting for the perfect moment to pounce, which we all know is never too far away.

Options Expiry Alert:
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.85B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.
$BTC: $2.54B notional | Put/Call: 0.95 | Max Pain: $90K
$ETH: $316M notional | Put/Call: 0.88 | Max Pain: $1,800
Market shows strong BTC call stacking above $95K, what…

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 1, 2025

Earlier this week, the brilliant minds over at Greeks Live informed us that implied volatility is on the decline. Short-term traders must be getting bored, as the market isn’t expecting much excitement. A dull week for volatility—what a tragic turn of events.

“Despite the BTC price oscillating at $95,000, market sentiment on the cryptocurrency side of the market is not high and can only be described as improving.”

Deribit, ever the voice of reason, concurs, adding that “BTC volatility trades low and steep with short-dated smiles skewed neutral, and funding rates remain close to zero after some negative spikes.” Yes, indeed, it seems like traders are paying little to hold their positions. How utterly thrilling!

And if that wasn’t enough for you, there’s also the small matter of Ethereum’s 175,000 options expiring today, worth a cool $317 million. The max pain point for ETH stands at $1,800, just to keep things interesting. It’s all adding up to a combined crypto options expiry value of $2.85 billion. How quaint.

Crypto Market Outlook

As the week draws to a close, crypto markets are showing a modest uptick, with total capitalization crawling up to $3.12 trillion. Remarkable. Bitcoin, ever the star, is leading the charge, with an intraday high of $97,340 on Thursday. Though by the time you read this, it may have dipped slightly below $97,000, but fear not—it’s still up 3% from last week.

Ethereum, poor darling, is making some slight gains, reaching $1,860. It’s a lovely number, though far from its heyday during crypto’s golden days. It’s still hanging out in the crypto winter, but a 2% gain is something, isn’t it?

And as always, the altcoins are chugging along. Dogecoin, Avalanche, Litecoin, and Hyperliquid are all doing their thing, no drama, just keeping their heads down and getting on with it.

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2025-05-02 09:13