Markets
What to know (or what to ignore, your call):
- So, Compass Point analysts think the crypto bear market is in its “final innings.” Yeah, sure, like I thought my marriage was in its “final innings” before the divorce papers. Anyway, they say Bitcoin’s gonna bottom out between $60K and $68K, unless the whole U.S. equity market decides to throw a tantrum.
- Apparently, there’s “strong long-term holder support” around $65K. Great, because nothing says “support” like a bunch of people clinging to their sinking ship. But watch out for the $70K to $80K range-it’s an “air pocket.” You know, like when you’re on a plane and suddenly your stomach’s in your throat. Except this time, it’s your wallet.
- If Bitcoin drops to $55K, it’s because something really bad happened. Like, 2022 bad. But hey, at least regulatory progress is “inching forward.” Snail pace, anyone?
So, the crypto market’s supposedly nearing the bottom of its downturn. But don’t get too comfy-Compass Point says it’ll take a “broader risk-off event” to push Bitcoin lower. You know, like when you’re at a buffet and you think you’re done, but then they bring out the dessert cart.
“While near-term risk remains skewed to the downside, we believe we’re approaching the final innings of the crypto bear market,” analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan wrote. Translation: “We’re pretty sure, but don’t sue us if we’re wrong.” Also, they think a U.S. equity bear market would be needed for further downside. So, let’s all just hope the stock market doesn’t decide to have a meltdown.
Their base case? Bitcoin bottoms between $60K and $68K. Why? Because long-term holders have shown “buying conviction” in that range. Or maybe they’re just gluttons for punishment. “We see very strong support within this range,” they wrote. Sure, just like I saw “very strong support” for my stand-up routine before the audience booed me off stage.
Bitcoin recently dipped below $81K to $74,532. The analysts say this reflects the average cost basis for ETF investors and the broader market. Basically, everyone’s underwater, and the ETFs are hemorrhaging cash. “With over 50% of ETF AUM now underwater, we see risk that outflows remain elevated,” they wrote. Shocking.
‘Air pocket’
The $70K to $80K range is now an “air pocket,” with little structural support above $70K. Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was acquired in this range. So, if you’re holding here, good luck. You’re basically skydiving without a parachute.
If Bitcoin falls through the $60K-$68K support, the next stop could be $55K-but only if things get really ugly. Like, 2022 ugly. “During the 2022 bear market, it took the combination of an equity bear market and several high-profile crypto bankruptcies to breach BTC‘s average cost basis,” they said. So, let’s all just hope history doesn’t repeat itself. Or does it? I can’t keep up.
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2026-02-03 03:46