Fed’s Speech Could Sink Bitcoin Rally!

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Markets

What to know:

  • Bitcoin, that fickle lover, retreated to $74,000 Tuesday, its ambitions dashed by the specter of the Fed’s Wednesday monologue.
  • Though the Fed’s rate hike is as inevitable as the sunrise, its oratory on inflation-will it be a serenade or a scolding?-could send tremors through the markets.
  • A “hawkish” tone, coupled with a blistering PPI report, might send equities and crypto tumbling, yet Powell’s dismissal of oil prices as a “temporary shock” could prolong the crypto masquerade, analysts opine.

The crypto crowd, ever the dramatists, paused their revelry Tuesday, awaiting the Fed’s verdict.

After a brief flirtation with $76,000, Bitcoin retreated to $74,000, a modest gain over 24 hours-though one might call it a “magnificent failure.”

Crypto stocks, mostly, limped forward, with Circle and Bitdeer leading the charge, their gains as thrilling as a well-timed punchline. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, ever the sober companions, edged up 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively.

It is almost a given that the Fed will keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% tomorrow. Yet with oil prices soaring and Iran’s war casting a shadow, the focus shifts to Powell’s words-a performance as critical as a king’s decree.

Bitfinex analysts, ever the prophets, ponder whether the Fed will whisper of rate cuts in 2026 or abandon such delusions. A “hawkish” tone, they warn, might bolster the dollar, crushing risk assets like a tragicomedy’s climax.

Powell’s take on oil’s rise will also be scrutinized. Label it a “temporary shock,” and the market may sigh in relief; brand it stagflation, and the Fed’s hands will be tied.

The February PPI report, though less dramatic than the CPI, will be watched with the intensity of a duel. A “hot” number, paired with a hawkish FOMC, could spell disaster, the Bitfinex team warns.

This backdrop has already spurred market bets for a “higher-for-longer” rate saga, according to K33’s Vetle Lunde. The probability of unchanged rates through July now exceeds 60%-a figure as lofty as Bitcoin’s recent peaks.

For now, price action remains as tame as a courtier’s bow. “We expect the $74,000-$76,000 region to cap price momentarily,” Bitfinex concludes, as if predicting the weather.

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2026-03-17 23:40