Will crypto market rally as ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran intensify?

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The United States, Iran, and a select cadre of regional diplomats are cautiously toying with the idea of a ceasefire-of course, this is assuming the deal doesn’t go the way of the last dozen attempts. According to sources who are far too familiar with the conversations, the notion of a permanent resolution might be more of a hopeful wish than a tangible reality.

  • The U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a two-phase ceasefire plan, though the chances of a deal appearing soon are as thin as the paper it’s written on.
  • Pakistan has proposed an “Islamabad Accord” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and, supposedly, avoid yet another round of escalating tensions.

As the Axios report goes, the prospects of a deal in the next 48 hours are pretty dim, like that last hope of getting a perfect selfie in the fading light of day. Still, officials are calling this the final chance to avoid a disastrous escalation, one that might involve airstrikes on Iranian civilian targets and retaliations on the water and energy infrastructure of Gulf states.

Meanwhile, a different source has indicated that both Washington and Tehran have received an intriguing proposal-one that could stop hostilities by Monday (yes, Monday) while opening the Strait of Hormuz. A proposal crafted by Pakistan and presented in the dead of night, detailing a two-phase process with a ceasefire followed by, of course, endless negotiations.

“Everything needs to be finalized today,” said the source, possibly with a bit of sarcasm, as the understanding would take form in the shape of a memorandum of understanding-officially finalized electronically through Pakistan, the new power player in this game of diplomacy.

Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has apparently been on the phone all night with JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iran’s Abbas Araqchi. Sounds like a delightful way to spend the night, doesn’t it?

The ceasefire would kick off immediately, allowing ships to resume their passage through the strait. A 15 to 20-day window would follow to finalize a larger deal. This proposal, informally known as the “Islamabad Accord,” would also set the stage for a regional framework governing the waterway, with in-person talks expected to take place in Islamabad-just in case anyone thought this was going to wrap up easily.

Strait tensions and final ultimatum

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent global oil prices soaring, like the price of anything when you need it the most.

Donald Trump has been vocal about the deadline to reopen the passage or face military action, issuing warnings that Iran will be “living in hell.” His Truth Social post extended the deadline to Tuesday-because, of course, that’s the magical day of reckoning.

Despite all the mounting diplomatic pressure, Tehran has shown little sign of yielding. Officials in Iran have made it clear that any deal must guarantee no further attacks from the U.S. or Israel. They’ve also confirmed receiving messages from mediators, including Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, all urging for a temporary 45-day truce for the sake of negotiations.

The draft agreement is rumored to include a promise from Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons, in exchange for relief from sanctions and access to frozen assets. However, no formal commitment has yet been secured. It’s all very “we’ll see,” isn’t it?

Iran’s leadership remains steadfast in their stance, vowing to retaliate “in kind” against any attack on their infrastructure, while possibly considering things like tolls for the Strait-because why not add a little extra charge while you’re at it?

How will the crypto market react to potential de-escalation?

Although no official deal has been struck at the time of writing (naturally), risk assets have begun to climb. The total crypto market cap has increased by 3.4%, reaching $2.47 trillion, with Bitcoin (BTC) aiming for the illustrious $70,000 mark. Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and other major tokens have posted gains in the 3% to 6% range.

This suggests that traders might already be hedging their bets on a possible de-escalation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. After all, stabilizing energy markets might just make life a bit easier for everyone-except maybe those trying to sell oil at sky-high prices.

Traditional markets, however, are more mixed. Asian equities are mostly down, with the exception of the Nikkei 225, while gold and silver have been wobbling in a narrow range, as investors ponder whether they should take a risk or just sit tight.

Should a ceasefire be confirmed, both the crypto and equity markets could benefit from lower oil prices, which could alleviate inflation pressures. This could even prompt the Federal Reserve to loosen its purse strings. However, if no deal is reached and things spiral out of control, we could see a rush into safe-haven assets-putting pressure on cryptocurrencies as investors flee to the safety of the dollar and other traditional defensive plays.

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2026-04-06 14:37