Star Wars’ Next Movie Is Going to Break a Disappointing Record for Disney After 11 Years (But There’s Some Hope)

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Early predictions for the new Star Wars movie, The Mandalorian and Grogu, suggest it may not perform well at the box office. It’s been seven years since a Star Wars film was in theaters, and the franchise has mostly been on streaming services since then. However, that’s about to change, as The Mandalorian and Grogu returns to the big screen on May 22nd. The film is taking the place of what would have been Season 4 of The Mandalorian, and it’s unclear how audiences will react.

Box Office Theory has made an early prediction for the opening weekend of The Mandalorian and Grogu. They forecast around $71 million in ticket sales, which would be the lowest opening for any Star Wars film released by Disney – even less than the $84.4 million earned by Solo: A Star Wars Story, a film considered a box office failure. While they believe Pedro Pascal and Grogu will attract audiences, and the use of practical effects is a plus, they point out that movies and franchises that started on streaming services haven’t always performed well in theaters, as seen with some Marvel and Pixar films.

The Mandalorian and Grogu’s Box Office Isn’t a Disaster for Disney

It’s natural that people online are already comparing this new film to Solo. Both movies suffered from weak marketing – while the latest trailer for The Mandalorian and Grogu was good, the first one wasn’t well-received, and a Super Bowl ad didn’t generate much excitement. However, comparing them isn’t entirely fair. This new film has a much smaller budget than Solo, so it doesn’t need to earn as much money to be considered a success.

The California Film Commission states the budget for the new Star Wars movie, The Mandalorian and Grogu, is $166 million. However, the final cost will likely be higher, as post-production work will happen outside of California – probably in countries like Canada, Australia, or Ireland. Even so, it’s projected to be the least expensive Star Wars film ever made. This lower budget changes things, making it feel more like a movie originally intended for streaming, but with the potential to also earn money in theaters.

Looking at it this way, The Mandalorian and Grogu seems like a pretty secure project for Disney. While it’s not expected to be the biggest hit of the year – initial projections are even lower than Project Hail Mary, and it likely won’t have the same staying power – it should easily earn back its production costs and ultimately prove successful for Disney+. The budget is comparable to a season of The Mandalorian, making this a sensible strategy for both Lucasfilm and Disney.

Despite its popularity, The Mandalorian and Grogu probably won’t deliver the full Star Wars resurgence fans are hoping for. That breakthrough may come next year with Star Wars: Starfighter, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of Star Wars. The original Star Wars film will also be re-released around that time, before Lucas officially titled it “Episode IV.” While The Mandalorian and Grogu might not be the new beginning Star Wars needs, it will almost certainly be financially successful, and that’s a win in itself.

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2026-04-10 21:11