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<a href="https://investment-policy.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> Holds Key Support: What Open Interest Says About the Next Move

Key Takeaways:

  • Bitcoin at $73,558, SMA100 at $73,054 held as support yesterday.
  • RSI at 35.74, signal at 43.79 – approaching oversold on daily chart
  • 0.382 Fib at $74,071 is immediate resistance, 0.236 Fib and SMA50 cluster at $77,220-$77,397
  • Binance leads open interest at 302,500 BTC, Bybit second at 230,000 BTC
  • Rising OI while price sits at support could amplify next move in either direction

Bitcoin experienced a drop yesterday, falling below the $74,071 support level (based on Fibonacci analysis) and eventually stopping at $73,054, which acted as a floor. This floor has been steadily rising as Bitcoin recovered from its February lows, successfully absorbing the recent selling pressure. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $73,558 and is trying to regain the $74,071 level it lost yesterday.

The levels that matter right now

Bitcoin’s next likely target is around $74,071, about $500 above its current price. If it breaks through this level and stays above it, it could climb towards $77,220 and then $77,397. These two resistance levels are very close together, meaning the price might face strong pushback in that small range. Even if Bitcoin reaches that area, the combination of a falling moving average and a Fibonacci level at the same price could cause it to drop back down towards $74,071.

If the price doesn’t manage to stay above $74,071, traders will likely test the $73,054 level (the 100-day Simple Moving Average). This level has provided support before, so buyers are aware of it. However, if the price falls below $73,054, the next key level to watch is around $72,500 (yesterday’s low), followed by $71,382, which represents a significant Fibonacci retracement level.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 35.74, nearing a level that often signals the asset is oversold and may attract buyers. While the RSI indicates a sustained downward trend, it’s also approaching a point where historically, it hasn’t been ideal to bet against Bitcoin. This doesn’t necessarily mean prices will rise, but it suggests selling pressure may be losing steam and support levels are strengthening.

What the open interest data adds

Data from CryptoQuant shows that open interest in Bitcoin futures is recovering after a sharp drop in February 2026, when Bitcoin’s price fell from around $120,000 to $63,000. Binance currently has the most open interest, with roughly 302,500 BTC, followed by Bybit at around 230,000 BTC and OKX at approximately 99,000 BTC. Trading is also happening on exchanges like Kraken, BitMEX, and Gate.io.

The market crash in February caused a significant decrease in open interest, as many leveraged trades were closed due to falling prices. Since March, open interest has been recovering and is now approaching levels last seen in late 2025. This recovery is happening while the price is at $73,500, supported by the 100-day simple moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.

This situation has both positive and negative aspects. When open interest (OI) increases at a support level, it indicates new, leveraged trades are being established precisely where the price is being tested. If most of these trades are bets that the price will go up (long positions) and the support level holds, the increased OI could lead to a faster price increase, potentially reaching $74,071 or even higher. Leveraged traders can drive price movements more quickly than those buying directly.

If the price falls below its current support level and forces traders to close their long positions (a ‘squeeze’), the open interest will actually increase selling. This added selling pressure, combined with natural market selling, could cause the price to drop quickly towards $72,500 and then potentially to $71,382. This happens faster in a leveraged market than in a standard market. We saw a recent example of this in February when a key price level was broken.

Where things stand

As I’m watching Bitcoin right now, it’s currently resting on its 100-day Simple Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index is nearing oversold territory, and we’re starting to see renewed interest in the market. My first target to the upside is around $74,071, based on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. If Bitcoin can hold above that level on a daily closing basis, I expect we’ll see another push towards the $77,220-$77,397 resistance area. However, if it fails to hold, we’ll likely retest the SMA100. A break below that could lead to a faster drop, potentially down to $72,500 or even lower, and the increasing open interest suggests that move could be significant.

The 100-day Simple Moving Average acted as support yesterday. Now, it’s important to watch if it continues to hold, and if the $74,071 level can turn into a new support level.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t recommend any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-05-29 11:32